Boomers Olympic Opposition Analysis: Slovenia

Written for nbl.com.au by Tom Hersz

Australia Boomers v Slovenia

When: 9.00pm (AEST), Saturday 7 August

Where: Saitama Super Arena, Tokyo, Japan

Broadcast: 7 Network, 7+  

 

Let’s all exhale and remember we are still on the verge of doing something incredible.

I get it. We’ve been here before. We get our hopes up and it ends in heartbreak. Rinse, repeat.

If you’re feeling a little dejected, you’re not alone. But we need to move past that because tonight, with a team that is possibly playing the best basketball a Boomers team has played at an Olympics, our boys try to make history.

Our opponents are somewhat of an unknown commodity. Slovenia’s history in FIBA play outside of Eurobasket events is limited to just three World Championships / World Cup campaigns in 2006, 2010 and 2014, where they’ve not made it past the quarterfinals. This is their first Olympic Games, so they’ve obviously never played off for a medal before.

They came agonisingly close to making the Gold Medal game. If not for a miraculous block by Nicolas Batum on Klemen Prepelic’s last second drive, then Slovenia would have been facing Team USA for a shot at Gold.

It was an incredible game against France in the semi-final. A see-sawing affair that gave us 9 lead changes and 11 ties. Slovenia led early, getting out by as much as 8 points in the first quarter. France then came back late and kept it close, but then the third quarter belonged to France who got out by as much as 10 points late in the period and looked like they might run away with it.

Slovenia would not give up though. They quickly narrowed the margin, stayed with France and tied the game on several occasions, but never took the lead back.

And despite some big plays from Luka Doncic – who became the youngest player to record a triple double at the Olympics – and some big shots from Prepelic, ultimately it was Batum’s block that decided the game and handed Doncic his first ever loss in a Slovenian jersey at senior level.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">? TRIPLE DOUBLE ?<br><br>?? <a href="https://twitter.com/luka7doncic?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@luka7doncic</a> with the 3rd triple in <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Olympics?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Olympics</a> history and 1st since <a href="https://twitter.com/KingJames?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@KingJames</a> at London 2012.<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Tokyo2020?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Tokyo2020</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Basketball?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Basketball</a> <a href="https://t.co/xwvJ504IeL">pic.twitter.com/xwvJ504IeL</a></p>&mdash; FIBA | #Basketball #Tokyo2020 (@FIBA) <a href="https://twitter.com/FIBA/status/1423264137497309185?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">August 5, 2021</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>


Doncic finished with 16 points, 18 assists and 10 rebounds, Prepelic had 17 points and an undersized Mike Tobey was again huge, battling Rudy Gobert and Moustapha Fall to finish with 23 points and 8 rebounds (5 o-rebs).

The Boomers’ semi-final was not nearly as exciting – well not after halftime anyway. A dream start that saw nearly everything go right on both ends of the floor helped Australia build a 15-point lead at 41-26 with 5:23 to play in the second quarter, before the US – just as they did against Spain in the quarterfinal – turned it on and had narrowed the margin to just three points at the main break.

The third quarter belonged to the Americans who lifted at both ends of the floor. The Boomers’ offence dried up against the ball pressure of Team USA, who keyed in on Mills and Ingles to force anyone else to beat them. Jock Landale did his best to keep us in the game, as did Dante Exum, but it wasn’t enough.

Meanwhile, Kevin Durant stayed hot, Zach LaVine and Jrue Holiday chipped in turning defence into offence and once they had the lead, it quickly ballooned behind a 32-10 advantage in the period.

In the fourth, we stayed with them, but it mattered not. The damage had been done and the US marched on to their fourth straight Gold Medal Game at the Olympics, while we were left wondering where it all went wrong.

A second straight Bronze Medal game – third straight if you count the 2019 FIBA World Cup –awaits for the Boomers.

We last played Slovenia in the opening game of the 2014 FIBA World Cup in Turkey, where the Boomers lost 90-80. Slovenia was led by Goran Dragic that day. Three other players from that team, Prepelic, Zoran Dragic and Jaka Blažic are playing in Tokyo. But this team, ranked 16^th by FIBA coming into Tokyo, has a number of new faces as they continue to prove they belong amongst the world’s elite nations.

Who are the players to watch, who are their X-factors, and what will the Boomers need to focus on to finally get onto that podium?

 

Players to Watch - Slovenia

Luka Doncic: If there was any doubt how the Dallas Mavericks wonder kid would fare at Olympic level, he put that to bed in the first quarter of his first game in Tokyo.

Doncic, the 2019 NBA Rookie of the Year, poured in 9 points in the first 140 seconds, 17 points in the first quarter, 31 points in the first half and finished with 48 points, to go along with 11 rebounds and 5 assists in an 18-point win over Argentina. He was just 7 points shy of Oscar Schmidt’s Olympic record of 55 points in a game; a record that has stood since 1988 in Seoul.

Doncic, who has made two straight All-NBA First Teams in just his second and third seasons, has averaged 24.2 points, 10 rebounds and 10 assists through five games in Tokyo. Yes, you read that right; Luka is averaging a triple double at the Olympics!

And all the skills and moves that we’ve grown to love from his game with the Mavericks, have been on display for Slovenia. His trademark step-back three, his dribble drive penetration into that short bank-shot, his ability to drive and kick out to wide-open teammates because of the attention he draws, and his change of pace which so often causes contact and gets him to the free-throw line.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">? 42 and 14 for LUKA in Game 5 ?<a href="https://twitter.com/luka7doncic?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@luka7doncic</a> becomes the 2nd player in <a href="https://twitter.com/NBAHistory?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@NBAHistory</a> with 40+ points and 14+ assists in an <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NBAPlayoffs?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#NBAPlayoffs</a> game!<br><br>Game 6 - Fri, 9pm/et, ESPN <a href="https://t.co/jtjdnk4doS">pic.twitter.com/jtjdnk4doS</a></p>&mdash; NBA (@NBA) <a href="https://twitter.com/NBA/status/1400317782147747843?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">June 3, 2021</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>


Doncic had never lost a game at senior level for Slovenia until the semi-final against France. He was 17-0 before that game and he did everything he could to will his team to victory with a 16 point, 10 rebound, 18 assist triple double.

Unfortunately, Doncic appeared to injure his left wrist in the fourth quarter when he collided with a courtside broadcast screen and looked to be uncomfortable down the stretch, not shooting the ball. He said afterwards that he wasn’t hitting his shots (he was 5-18 FG) so he passed to his teammates, but the status of that wrist will be something to keep an eye on heading into the Bronze medal game.

The Boomers can take a leaf out of how France defended him. They made every shot difficult, forced him to be a facilitator and to make someone else beat them. It nearly didn’t work and is no easy task, but then as good a defender as Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot is, he’s not on the same level as Matisse Thybulle.

Brian Goorjian may choose to keep Thybulle coming off the bench, so as not to mess with his team’s chemistry and rotations, starting Matthew Dellavedova on Doncic, but it won’t be long before the All-NBA Defender is inserted to slow down Luka. If the Boomers are able to do that, then it becomes a bit more of a chess match.

 

Mike Tobey: After obtaining his Slovenian passport in 2020, Tobey has established himself as a key cog in this national team. The former UVA standout who had a cup of coffee with the Charlotte Hornets in 2017 has been a staple of Valencia Basket in Spain’s ACB the past three seasons.

Tobey, a mobile 7-footer, has been a favourite target of Doncic’s in Tokyo. Tobey is averaging 13.8 points, 11.6 rebounds and 2.2 assists. He’s shooting 62.5% from the field and has even knocked down 4-11 three-pointers.

His ability both in the pick and roll as a dive man, and his work on the o-boards (3.6 per game) have been huge for this Slovenian team and it should be a really interesting matchup with Jock Landale.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">The STRONG putback from Mike Tobey ?<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/7DAYSMagicMoment?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#7DAYSMagicMoment</a> <a href="https://t.co/veVSTKj4zj">pic.twitter.com/veVSTKj4zj</a></p>&mdash; Turkish Airlines EuroLeague (@EuroLeague) <a href="https://twitter.com/EuroLeague/status/1347283505454194689?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 7, 2021</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>


Tobey’s game reminds me a little of John Mooney’s. He’s very fundamentally sound, gets himself into the right spots to make the most of the attention Doncic draws (as Mooney did with Bryce Cotton), has some solid range on his jump shot on pick and pops, and knows how to finish in traffic.

For Valencia last season, he averaged 9.6 points and 5 rebounds in 33 Euroleague games, mostly as a reserve, so he’s relishing the opportunity to play a bigger role here in Tokyo.

Tobey is not much of a shot blocker (only 1 block in 5 games) and he is a little prone to foul trouble (fouled out in first game, had 4 fouls in third game), so it will important for Landale and Nick Kay, to take it right at him as Rudy Gobert did in the semi-final. If Tobey has to sit for extended periods, the Slovenians lose a big part of their offensive structure.

 

Klemen Prepelic: A teammate of Tobey’s at Valencia Basket this past season, Prepelic is a dynamic shooting guard who plays very well alongside Luka.

At 6’2, he’s not the tallest, but he knows how to move off the ball to free himself, reads Doncic’s dribble-penetration well to relocate to space and is aggressive with the ball when it finds him.

Coming off the bench for Coach Aleksander Sekulic, he is a streaky shooter, but capable of filling it up. He hit 41.5% from deep in Euroleague play last season and 37.4% from that range across all games for Valencia, and has been around that mark in Tokyo, making 13-34 3FGs (38.2%) so far.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">18pts I 6ast I 26PIR <a href="https://twitter.com/KlemenPrepelic?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@KlemenPrepelic</a> a <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/EuroLeague?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#EuroLeague</a> career night for Klemen as he finishes with a high in points and index rating for <a href="https://twitter.com/valenciabasket?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@valenciabasket</a> ? <a href="https://t.co/mrzd0JY2rM">pic.twitter.com/mrzd0JY2rM</a></p>&mdash; Turkish Airlines EuroLeague (@EuroLeague) <a href="https://twitter.com/EuroLeague/status/1329031347998916609?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 18, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>


Prepelic went off for 22 points in their opening game against Argentina and had 17 points in the semi-final against France, knocking down some big shots, including a three-ball to make it a one-point game with 33 seconds to go. Unfortunately, his last field-goal attempt that would have put them into the Gold Medal game, got stuffed by Batum in the dying seconds.

There wasn’t much more he could have done. He actually made a great move to get past Batum in the first place and find a lane to the basket, before the 7’1 wingspan of Batum recovered.

Against the Boomers, it will be important to respect Prepelic’s ability to put the ball on the floor when closing out, while also contesting his 3-point shot which can be a real weapon. He’s a tough cover and will need to be someone the Boomers defence is focused on at all times.

 

Vlatko Cancar: If you’re not a hardcore NBA fan, you may not realise that Cancar just completed his second season with the Denver Nuggets.

Drafted in the second round of the 2017 NBA Draft, Cancar stayed in Europe for the next two seasons playing in Serbia and Spain, before signing his rookie deal with Denver in 2019. He split time between the G League and the Nuggets roster as a rookie, playing in just 14 NBA games and then 41 games this past season, but did show what he’s capable of at that level and had some moments, like this …

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">.<a href="https://twitter.com/CancarVlatko?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@CancarVlatko</a> had himself a career night against Minnesota!<br><br>14 PTS | 3 3PM<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/MileHighBasketball?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#MileHighBasketball</a> <a href="https://t.co/9l64qldkud">pic.twitter.com/9l64qldkud</a></p>&mdash; Denver Nuggets (@nuggets) <a href="https://twitter.com/nuggets/status/1393238425638105095?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 14, 2021</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>


At 6’8, he’s a traditional three-man with solid range, and while not necessarily a lights out shooter (.393 3FG% in G League, .273 3FG% in NBA in 20-21) he’s been hot in Tokyo. He’s made 10-19 from long range in this tournament and has to be respected.

Cancar is also smart, knowing when to attack and when to move the ball. He’s gotten to the free-throw line consistently, where he’s a dead-eye (13-14 FTs) and is also shooting 13-19 from 2-pt range.

Cancar’s job is to be a complementary scorer and he’s done a solid job of it, averaging 13.8 points so far. He had 22 points against Spain in the group phase, while contributing 11 points and 9 rebounds in the semi-final loss to France.

He doesn’t turn the ball over much and he doesn’t foul a lot, but he’s not the best defender so it will be important for the likes of Joe Ingles, Thybulle and Dante Exum to be aggressive against him as he likely won’t provide much resistance. But it’s on the other end where he’ll make his impact and if we don’t respect that, his name may be one you become more familiar with.

 

The X-Factors

Zoran Dragic: The name may be familiar and the face certainly looks familiar, but you probably haven’t seen Goran Dragic’s younger brother for a while.

Zoran, three years younger, played just the one season in the NBA back in 2014-15, teaming with his big bro in Phoenix before being dealt together to Miami. Zoran was then dealt to Boston where he was subsequently waived, and he came back to Europe.

Since then, he’s been a staple of Euroleague powerhouse teams like Khimki Moscow, Olimpia Milano and Anadolu Efes, where he teamed with Brock Motum.

Dragic is a 6’5 wing who plays shooting guard or small forward for this Slovenian team and is the team’s oldest player at 32. He is a streaky scorer and playmaker. If he gets going early, he will keep shooting, while in other games he can go missing at times. We’ve seen both versions of Zoran in Tokyo.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="pl" dir="ltr">Zoran Dragic ??? <a href="https://t.co/u7cHKEmpy5">pic.twitter.com/u7cHKEmpy5</a></p>&mdash; Hirukoa (@hirukoa80) <a href="https://twitter.com/hirukoa80/status/1422399600846155804?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">August 3, 2021</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>


Against Japan in the group phase, he went off for 24 points on 10-13 shooting, doing most of his damage from 2-point range (8-10). In the quarterfinals against Germany, he was even better going 11-13 from the field and 5-7 from long range on his way to a game-high 27 points, adding 6 boards, 4 assists and 3 steals for good measure.

But then in the semi-final against France, Dragic went completely missing. He attempted just 1 field goal, made 1-3 FTs and finished the game with just the 1 point, 0 rebounds or assists and 3 fouls in 11 minutes. His other two group games weren’t that inspiring either with 6 points against Spain and 7 points versus Argentina in the opener.

Dragic is a bit feast or famine. However, the ability to carry his team when he does get hot – as he did against Germany and Japan – cannot be overlooked. If you allow him to get going early, he’s a really tough cover and can score all over the floor.

 

Jaka Blažic: The other veteran of this team, Blažic, 31, starts at shooting guard on this team. After four seasons in Spain, he returned to Slovenia the past two seasons, playing for KK Cedevita Olimpija Ljubljana, where he was a teammate of Australian Mangok Mathiang this past season.

Blažic has become a much more reliable three-point shooter as his career has progressed and hit a red-hot 46.6% from deep in 16 Eurocup games last season and 37.5% across the season. He averaged 16.7 points, 4.5 boards and 3 assists as well as just under 1 steal a game.

He works hard on and off the ball and is not afraid to let it fly. He’s certainly done that in Tokyo, attempting 33 three-pointers across Slovenia’s five games, but has only connected on eight of those for a 24.2% mark.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="sl" dir="ltr">? | <a href="https://twitter.com/JakaBlazic?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@JakaBlazic</a>:<br> ? 30 minut<br> ? 15 to?k<br> ? 3/8 za dve<br> ? 2/3 za tri<br> ? 4 skoki<br> ? valorizacija 13<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/ZmajevoSrce?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#ZmajevoSrce</a> | <a href="https://twitter.com/EuroCup?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@EuroCup</a> <a href="https://t.co/pwEyPCvr4i">pic.twitter.com/pwEyPCvr4i</a></p>&mdash; Cedevita Olimpija Ljubljana (@KKCedOL) <a href="https://twitter.com/KKCedOL/status/1358007277723262976?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 6, 2021</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>


 On the other end, he likes to gamble defensively. He’s aggressive on the ball and has averaged 1.2 steals in Tokyo, but also nearly 3 fouls per game. So, the Boomers’ guards will need to be aware of that.

Blažic is not really a threat elsewhere. He’ll get some transition layups when he does get a steal, but has attempted just 2 free-throws for the tournament and averages just 1.4 assists so isn’t much of a threat in the half court. If the Boomers stay at home on him on the 3-point line, he shouldn’t be too much of a factor in this game, but he can get hot, so has to at least be challenged.

Still, if you’re going to gamble off anyone in their starting line-up, it would be Blažic. Make him be the one to beat you, unless he gets hot early.

 

Boomers Keys to the Game

Like with Kevin Durant and the US team, so much of this team is driven by what Luka does. There is no way to stop him, so it’s really about making it difficult for him, trying to limit his impact and making someone else beat you.

However, he is obviously a brilliant passer, with shooters a-plenty at his disposal which as we saw in the semi-final, can be enough to beat a quality opponent. So just forcing him to give it up is not enough.

We’ve seen at times that you can get under Doncic’s skin a little. He can also sometimes get caught up in the officiating. He clearly had a gripe after the France game on Thursday, yelling out “FIBA” at the post-game press conference.

So, it may behove the Boomers to try to exploit that a little. Test the officiating to see how much contact you can get away with; how tightly they plan to call the game, how much his wrist is really bothering him and then see how he responds.

In any event, he requires a lot of attention. Thybulle, Delly, Ingles and Exum will have their hands full. It may also not hurt to throw Josh Green out there in spurts. Green, who is Doncic’s teammate at Dallas, will be as familiar with how to guard him as anyone from going against him at practice every day.

Still, this team has a number of other weapons who have to be respected. If you allow them to get hot, it can be difficult to slow them down. We will need to be at our best defensively. The positive is, we’ve been one of the best defensive teams in this tournament and showed just how elite we can be in the first half against Team USA.

Communication is key. Knowing where the help is coming from, rotating to close out on shooters and ensuring that Tobey doesn’t have too much space when he dives on pick and roll action will go a long way to slowing this team down.

They like to play up-tempo and run up big scores. They lead the tournament in scoring at 102.4 points per game. The Boomers average 86.8 points by comparison, which is good for third best. So, controlling the pace of this game and stopping it from becoming a track meet will be important.

Slovenia ranks second last in steals, which is a plus for the Boomers who have been turnover prone at times. By contrast, we rank second, so can win the possession game with a combination of smart defence and solid rebounding.

The latter needs to be a focus as Slovenia, despite not being a huge team, are tops in the tournament both in offensive boards and defensive boards. If we give them second chance opportunities, they will likely take advantage.

But what is going to be most important will be our mental state of mind. The disappointment of yet another semi-final loss and an underwhelming showing against the US team, cannot change the way we play. The focus needs to be the same as it was against Argentina and in the group games.

Slovenia is also reeling from their semi-final loss, questioning the officiating. Let them be the ones who are not focused on this game and still looking backwards.

We have an amazing opportunity, are the more experienced team in these moments and must not let anything get in the way of capitalising on that opportunity.

A final word from Jock Landale after the semi-final loss:

“We put this game behind us, move and don’t let there be a hangover,’’ he said.

“Obviously we’re disappointed because we came here to win gold but, at the end of the day, we still have the opportunity to make history in our country and win a bronze medal.

“It would be selfish of us to carry this into the next game, we’ve got to be ready to roll. I’m already motivated and trying to put this behind me.”

This group has been motivated to make history from the moment they came together in Irvine last month. The end result may be a different colour, but history is still on offer.

Go grab it fellas.

#GoBoomers