Club-by-club - How your team can play Finals

As the finale of one of the closest regular seasons in the history of the NBL careens towards us, Jack Heverin and Liam Santamaria broke down every side's run home in the final three rounds.

Ninth | 10-14 | 96.46%

The run home
SYD (H)
TAS (A)
BRI (A)
NZB (H)

"It’s not easy, because you’re playing all those teams who are in that middle and who are desperate right now. The other thing with the 36ers is they just have to keep winning. They’re already at 14 losses with a bad percentage, so they’re probably going to need to win out to make their way in.

"The fact we’re still talking about them, the fact they’re still beeping on their mechanics, I think is huge and a massive credit to them as an organisation. They’re going to need to win out, so when you talk about most important games from here, it’s always just the next one, because one loss probably ends their season. This one coming up this week against Sydney is massive." - Liam Santamaria

Fifth | 12-13 | 97.12%

The run home
ILL (A)
ADE (H)
NZB (A)

"They’ve got a really poor percentage, and there’s a very high chance that’s going to come back to bite them down the stretch. They’ve got 12 wins and three games left, and I think 14 games gets you in. They only need to go two of these last three to lock themselves in. If they go 1-2, I reckon they’ll miss because they’ll be 13-15 with a poor percentage.

"Illawarra, Adelaide and New Zealand, two of those away, tough stretch but every game is tough right now and I’ve had belief in this Brisbane team all the way along. When push comes to shove and these games get really tough I think they’re going to stand up. Could they go 2-1 over these last three games and get in? I think they can." - Liam Santamaria

Seventh | 11-14 | 97.60%

The run home
TAS (H)
PER (A)
MEL (H)

"I think they’ve got the slimmest margin of error for all these teams that are a realistic chance because they’ve already got 14 losses. One loss takes them to 15 with a really poor percentage. I think they’re probably, when all is said and done, the team we’re looking at that misses out in here, but if they can beat Tassie – big if, huge game – if they can win that, what do Perth and Melbourne do down the stretch?

"In a couple of games' time they might have it all figured out that Melbourne’s locked in on top and Perth’s locked in at second, so do they do some funky things down the stretch? Because we’ve seen it happen.

"That is interesting for me that they do play Perth and Melbourne in those last couple of games." - Liam Santamaria

Sixth | 11-12 | 99.86%

The run home
BRI (H)
NZB (A)
SYD (A)
PER (H)
MEL (A)

"Those Perth/Melbourne games are even later respectively than the Cairns matchups against Perth and Melbourne. If those teams start doing funky things down the stretch, they could actually play to Illawarra’s benefit. These next three – Brisbane, New Zealand, Sydney – those are all double-point games because they want one of those teams to fall away and they want to take their spot in the post-season. Massive games, they’re playing very well. The three-game losing streak? They got rid of that with the two wins over the weekend and Justin Tatum has that team believing they can do something special.

"It’s a massive game this week against Brisbane. Whoever wins that game puts themselves at a huge advantage to get in." - Liam Santamaria

First | 17-7 | 106.46%

The run home
SEM (H)
NZB (H)
CNS (A)
ILL (H)

"What Melbourne United do over the course of these last four games, I think, is going to be fascinating to watch. They need to regain some form … they’ve only won three of their last seven and they need to start stacking wins together, they need to start getting all those main guys in form together. They’ll be starting to march through some of these next couple of games, South East Melbourne and Cairns in particular, that game against New Zealand is going to be huge.

"What happens on that final day? Do they sit some guys out, Illawarra might need that win and there might be a whole bunch of teams around the league cheering on Melbourne to beat the Hawks to keep their spot in the post-season, so that one I’ve got circled on my calendar as must-watch TV." - Liam Santamaria

Eighth | 10-13 | 43.48%

The run home
PER (A)
ILL (H)
MEL (A)
BRI (H)
ADE (A)

"They would be ruing that loss to Illawarra on the road the other day. Tough travel schedule, sure, tough team Illawarra, but they were right there, they could have got that job done and they didn’t.

"They’ve got the 13 losses but they’ve got a healthy percentage of 100 plus. They could lose two more and still get in, for me, especially Illawarra and Brisbane, they’re going to be double-point games against teams whose spots they’re trying to take in the post-season. Can they go to Perth, knock off a top two team and really give themselves a great launching pad to get into the post-season.

"I think getting in with 12 wins is unlikely, it’s still a possibility but I think they’re going to need to go 3-2 the rest of the way, but I think they’re good enough to do that." - Liam Santamaria

Second | 16-8 - 103.60%

The run home
NBZ (H)
CNS (H)
ILL (A)
TAS (A)

"They’re going to need Melbourne to slip up multiple times (to finish first) and they don’t play Melbourne, so they can’t go in there and knock them off to give Melbourne one of the losses they need to take, so they would have enjoyed what Sydney did, big time, because that kept the top spot conversation alive.

"I think the percentage, realistically, could come into play. There is a world where these two teams finish on the same win/loss record. In fact, if Perth beat New Zealand and Melbourne slip up in one of these next couple of games, they will be on the same record, but the percentage difference is quite big. The most likely scenario here is they get second – 17 wins locks them into second – but getting top spot is going to be tricky from here." - Liam Santamaria

Tenth | 10-15 | 92.93%

The run home
MEL (A)
TAS (H)
SYD (H)

"They’re alive, but they’re on life support. I don’t think they’re a realistic chance at this point. They’ve got the 15 losses and they’ve got a terrible percentage, and I think if you’re going to have 15 losses you’re going to need a good percentage. What they can do is play spoiler, because they did that in a big way against the Sydney Kings. That was a very annoying loss for the Sydney Kings in a lot of ways, but certainly on the ladder.

"Melbourne, the Throwdown, can they get something emotional together to try and pull off a big win in that situation? Then Tassie and Sydney, that final game against Sydney – there’s going to be some feeling involved in that. Some revenge from the Kings' perspective from what happened last round, and then South East Melbourne could potentially cost the Kings a spot in the post-season in that final round depending on how things break from here to there." - Liam Santamaria

Fourth | 12-13 | 101.41%

The run home
ADE (A)
ILL (H)
SEM (A)

"I don’t think they’re going to miss the finals now they’ve got 12 wins, with a very healthy percentage. They really only need to get one more win to get into the Play-In. You would think with this schedule – especially with South East Melbourne in that final game – they should be able to do that.

"We know they’re mercurial, they’re up one day and they’re really, really down the next, but they only need to be up one more time to get in. The question is can they get in that third or fourth bracket? That’s a huge advantage. I think two more wins will probably get them there but I think the pressure is off the Kings as a result of that win over Melbourne.

"They’ve got Adelaide who know they need to keep winning every game out, so it’s a massive game that one." - Liam Santamaria

Third | 12-12 | 105.52

The run home
CNS (A)
ADE (H)
SEM (A)
PER (H)

"Look at that beautiful percentage, they would be feeling outstanding about that. We’ve spoken about it recently, but it’s a result of the fact they’ve never lost a game this season by double-digits. 12 losses this season, all by single digits. It’s a lot of losses, but they’ve been in every single one of those games.

"This year they’ve struggled to find those victories they previously had, but they’ve found a way to be in it and that has held them in great stead. Despite Scott Roth’s comments over the course of the journey saying ‘we’re not this, we’re not that’, they’re right there, and I don’t think they’re a team you want to play in a Playoff series. The reality is they’re going to be in that three vs four, and they’re probably going to be in third hosting that game, then all of a sudden they’re going to play, most likely, Perth.

"They’ve still got a little bit of work to do against some teams who are desperate to knock them off." - Liam Santamaria