Club-by-club - How your team can make Finals

The finale of one of the closest regular seasons in the history of the NBL is continuing to careen towards us, and NBL analyst Liam Santamaria broke down exactly what awaits every team in the competition in the final two rounds.

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Ninth | 11-15 | 96.07%

The run home
BRI (A)
NZB (H)

Santamaria said: "I don’t think they’re going to make it, we’ve all buried them, they’re in the ground, they’re six feet under, but I’m not sure. I think there’s the tiniest little chance that a hand could break through the soil here. They’d need to go 2-0, but those games are against Brisbane and New Zealand, so each one of those wins is a dagger to one of the teams they’re trying to knock out.

"They’d need Brisbane to go 0-2, but Brisbane are a bit shaky, they’re not super reliable and that could happen. They’d need New Zealand to go maximum 1-3 the rest of the way, with New Zealand beating Brisbane. I’m just saying, Jim Carrey style, that there is still a chance here for Adelaide."

Sixth | 12-14 | 96.68%

The run home
ADE (H)
NZB (A)

Santamaria said: "I’m keeping the faith, and I messaged Justin Schueller last night to tell him that and he said ‘I’m going to reward you’, so let’s go the Bullets. They’re going to need to go 2-0 and they’re tough matchups. Adelaide has been playing well, and then at New Zealand.

"The reason I was on with Brisbane to begin with is I believe in the cut and thrust of the late-season they’re going to be a Tasmania-type team that defends at a high level and can win these clutch games. They let me down in Illawarra and if they had have got that we would be speaking much more confidently about them. I’m just going to hold the faith the rest of the way."

Eighth | 11-15 | 97.36%

The run home
PER (A)
MEL (H)

Santamaria said: "They’ve got the same record as Adelaide and they’ve got a slightly better percentage, but I think we’re all probably giving them way less of a chance.

"They play Perth and Melbourne ... they’re going to need a whole bunch of other results to go their way, but I think that loss to Tasmania for Cairns – as much as there’s still a mathematical chance – I think that’s the end of the road."

Fourth | 12-12 | 100.46%

The run home
NZB (A)
SYD (A)
PER (H)
MEL (A)

Santamaria said: "They’re not locked in, because they’ve still got work to do. Big games, New Zealand and Sydney – both on the road – in Round 19, that Sydney team is going to be fresh and waiting for them at Qudos Bank Arena, and then Perth and Melbourne in that final round. What does that look like for those top two teams? Do they have a lot to play for? Illawarra’s whole season might be on the line.

"They ticked a big box with that win over Brisbane with that fourth quarter execution. Gary Clark, beautiful stuff, but they could finish in that top four or they could finish out. Four games ago, there’s still lots of work to do.

"I’ve got them at one win from these next four and missing."

First | 18-7 | 106.94

The run home
NZB (H)
CNS (A)
ILL (H)

Santamaria said: "Dean Vickerman has good experience with this on both sides of the coin. He’s benefitted previously from teams messing around and he’s also had some experience of them resting players, taking things a little easy and taking their foot off the pedal like they did in Tasmania in the final round a couple of seasons ago, and then they got bounced out in the semi-finals.

"I think they’re just going to keep on keeping on, maybe some more minutes and opportunities for guys like Flynn Cameron and Kyle Bowen down the stretch of the season to make sure they’re red-hot and ready to go for post-season action as rookies in a pro league, but they’re going to continue to be a tough beat.

"Teams like Illawarra and New Zealand, Melbourne could deal them a devastating blow. We might arrive at those games and say Melbourne has not a lot to play for and everything’s on the line for their opponent. We know in this league if you’re just a touch off the mark you might get run over."

Seventh | 11-13 | 100.84%

The run home
ILL (H)
MEL (A)
BRI (H)
ADE (A)

Santamaria said: "I’ve got them making it despite the injury to Anthony Lamb which is crazy to say. Not everybody feels that way and saying one win maximum out of their next four which might see them missing. I think the reality is they need to get two wins. They’ve got a pretty healthy percentage and they’ve got four games, so they need to get two wins from those.

"Parker Jackson-Cartwright, Zylan Cheatham, my man Mantas Rubstavicius, this is a squad, I think, is at least going to go 500 over these last four games."

Second | 16-9 | 102.98%

The run home
CNS (H)
ILL (A)
TAS (A)

Santamaria said: "They take care of Cairns this week and they’ve got it done. Come in, just smash them and deal with them, but if they don’t and Cairns cause a huge upset they’ve still got a little bit of work to do there [to finish second]. Tassie are plugging away, they’re going to have Illawarra, and then who knows, that final game against Tassie could be for second spot."

Tenth | 10-16 | 92.57%

The run home
TAS (H)
SYD (H)

Santamaria said: "They are hoping to maybe get some troops back this week. Maybe Mitch Creek, maybe Matt Kenyon which will help. Can they play spoiler from this point on? They did beat Tasmania – who they play this week – on Christmas Day, remember, and they play Sydney again and they gave Sydney a nightmare loss a couple of weeks ago.

"I think they’re still relevant with a couple of big home games to finish off the season."

Fifth | 12-14 | 101.07%

The run home
ILL (H)
SEM (A)

Santamaria said: "No one really has a lot of trust in them, and I’m not sure if people within the organisation have trust in that squad themselves. Who knows what it’s going to be? They could go 2-0, bang bang, finish top four, play Tasmania and take it from there.

"Maybe they go 0-2, Illawarra and a South East Melbourne team that has Mitch Creek and Gary Browne back for a last hurrah at the end of the season, remember when South East Melbourne went to Perth and ended the streak in the last round a couple of seasons ago? They’ll want tt do a similar type of thing to Sydney in that final round."

Third | 14-12 | 106.48%

The run home
SEM (A)
PER (H)

Santamaria said: "I think the approach for the JackJumpers the rest of the way is ‘let’s play Finals basketball every time we step on the floor, so we can continue to ramp up this last part of the season, go into the post-season as one of the form teams of the competition, take care of business and then have that Wildcats team waiting for us in the semi-finals a bit scared we’re coming into the building’.

"When I watched Tasmania last weekend with Milton Doyle back in action, Jack McVeigh doing his thing, the way they share the ball – we heard Sean Macdonald say at half time ‘we don’t care who scores’. It reminded me of those beautiful San Antonio Spurs teams with Tony Parker, Manu Ginobli, Tim Duncan, Boris Diaw, who just moved the ball, played beautiful basketball, and if they can continue to play at that level they are genuine championship contenders."

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