Championship Series: The experts' say

The NBL24 Championship Series is just around the corner, and if the opinions of the league's experts, insiders and members is anything to go by, the title-deciding games between Melbourne and Tasmania look set to be some of the tightest yet.

NBL Media looked around the league and found the opinions of some of those who have their finger on the pulse, and have experienced success at the highest level of basketball.

Brian Goorjian (6x NBL champion, Olympic bronze medal winning coach), Mark Worthington (2009 NBL champion, 4x All-NBL First Team nominee), DJ Vasiljevic (2x NBL champion), Lanard Copeland (2x NBL champion, 1997 Grand Final MVP), and Simon Mitchell (former South East Melbourne head coach, 2018 championship winning assistant coach) spoke to NBL Media to discuss where they think this upcomign series will be won.

Brian Goorjian
"There’s two things about United. They had a lot of trouble with Cairns, and Cairns had elite guard play. When you have Delly and Ili you see that as a real strength, but for whatever reason they had trouble with Cairns. Cairns’ guards were good at changing the pace and were crafty, and they had a unique level of speed as a double, and I see that with Tasmania. Tasmania, to me, is much better in the half-court than Cairns, and Doyle and Crawford are elite. Doyle’s on a role, I know they have McVeigh and Magnay, but I think the guard play of Tasmania could be a concern. Good guards control the tempo, they can make plays, and I think if that’s a problem for United, it’s a big problem. I’m interested to see how that goes.

"Melbourne also don’t really have a guy that’s great off the bounce that can make plays. Tasmania can spread the court with Doyle and go and make the play. That situation with United having the one import, I think those are the two things that could hold United back from winning it. Tasmania’s guard play, and when Scott Roth has them locked up and someone has to make plays off the dribble."

DJ Vasiljevic
"I think it’s something we call depth and discipline. I think both teams have great depth, and they’re both very disciplined in the way Dean Vickerman and Scott Roth run their squads. The first team to crumble, or the first team not to use their depth to its full potential – that’s when the other team will strike. For me that’s the big key. The battle of the bigs is important because Will Magnay is playing some unbelievable basketball right now, but so are JLA and Ariel Hukporti, and Marcus Lee has to stay out of foul trouble. It’s the battle of the bigs, depth, and discipline in that aspect as well."

Mark Worthington
"I think it’s the matchup between Luke Travers an Jack McVeigh. A lot of the NBL for many years has been dictated by how good the import talent has been, but I really believe this series could come down to two young Australian guys who have had two really great seasons. They’ve been the key for both Tasmania and United all season. For me, the key is definitely the matchup between McVeigh and Travers."

Simon Mitchell
"I think the form and the performances of the backcourt is going to be really important. I think there's going to be a real evenness in the square-off at the center position between JLA, Hukporti, Magnay and Lee, so I think ti comes down to who is going to be on on the day. Can the defensive prowess of Melbourne’s backcourt quell the scoring of Tasmania’s scoring – which they need in that backcourt in support of Jack McVeigh? I think that’s the battle that I’m really looking forward to."

Lanard Copeland
"The deciding factor for me is shutting down the superstars, or letting them get off. If Milton Doyle can play the way he has the last two games, that certainly gives the JackJumpers a chance to win this thing. Home court advantage lies with Melbourne United, but it just seems like for some strange reason they play better in Melbourne. If Tasmania can control Chris Goulding and Doyle goes off, they have a good chance, but if Chris Goulding finds his feet and starts knocking down those threes, then it’s on.

Could Tasmania's guards cause Melbourne similar issues to what Cairns' did duing the regular season?

Brian Goorjian
"I don’t think at this point there’s going to be a secret guy come in. In a five-game series I think it’s going to be the known.

"One who is unbelievably talented and you know he’s going to be something special – and he reminds me a bit of Sam Mackinnon – I thought Travers in the series against the Hawks moved to scary. This guy is starting to do some stuff. I thought he created stuff and made big baskets and big plays under pressure. I thought he moved the needle and that could be a piece that would be a big lift for United in a series like this.

"For Tassie I feel McVeigh and Magnay played to a crazy level, they’re really special and hard to guard around the basket and give emotional energy to the whole team. McVeigh’s been good all season, but he moved from good to great. Doyle is a tremendous player and that dynamism scoring the ball started to show with a bit of rhythm in Perth, and I think he can go to another level."

DJ Vasiljevic
"I’d like to see Jack McVeigh and Luke Travers step up, because they’ve both been in those moments before. I’m not taking away from CG, Delly, or the guys from Tassie, but I think Jack McVeigh is playing some unreal basketball right now, and Luke Travers has the potential to be in the NBA next year. I think those are the two guys that are going to come in and have to lead from the front. There’s Ian Clark too who’s been a vet and has won championships in the NBL and the NBA, but I think it has to be Luke Travers and Jack McVeigh to be the guys to lead their sides."

Mark Worthington
"The Finals are always about that x-factor guy. I think for Tasmania it’s Sean Macdonald, he’s had a great season and he’s another guy who goes about his business the right way. He’s the perfect fit for the JackJumpers with the way he does what he does, so does Sean Macdonald for the Jackies.

"I think United has been the best team all season, but if they get to a point where they need a bit of a spark, I can see a world where Brad Newley who is trying to chase his first championship ... and he’s finished at the end of this season, but he could provide a spark they might need. We saw what Delly brought to the table against the Hawks, but there’s something weird about this series that makes me reckon Newls could get a little bit of burn for United and provide a spark if they need it."

Simon Mitchell
"I’ve been impressed with Clint Steindl’s last month. He’s had increased opportunity and I feel like his experience is going to be vital for Tasmania, and I could see him being a bit of an x-factor for them. Sean Macdonald has been immense throughout the season, but especially the Playoffs. I’ve really been impressed with his form on both ends. Defensively I feel like he did a really good job on Bryce Cotton, but he’s also keeping defences honest at the offensive end and providing a bit of spark there, I feel like he could get the job on an Ian Clark to try and keep him quiet, or he could get the job on Delly as well. I feel like he’s going to play a vital part in this series.

"For Melbourne nobody brings a surprise because they’re so star-studded, but Ian Clark is going to be hugely important coming off the bench for them, but I think whoever gets the defensive job on Milton Doyle is going to be important. I could see them going with someone a little bit longer like a Tanner Krebs to come in and play some vital minutes there. If he can knock down some shots and play a defensive role I feel like he could be a significant contributor."

Lanard Copeland
"For Melbourne United, they’re solid with stars. I still think Travers is a big key because of the way he plays, his athleticism, the way he rebounds the ball, how he finds ways to score, if he’s a factor then it’s going to help Melbourne United, 100 per cent. Majok Deng is coming in with full confidence and knocking down his threes, but it’s Marcus Lee who’s been surprising me. He usually comes in, gives two or three minutes and fouls and goes and sits down. He looks to me like he has a different attitude, and he’s playing like he deserves to be there. I’m just so excited about both of these teams because they match up so well, and they have coaches that are so smart. This one is so hard to call."

Is Luke Travers primed to take his next big leap forward?

Brian Goorjian
"I’m so excited for this series. Not only is it anybody’s series, but it’s going to be great basketball. The coaching is elite, the talent is elite. If I had to give it a swing, I’d say Melbourne because they have home court for Game 5. I think it should go to five, and if it’s like Melbourne’s Playoff situation against Illawarra, it could give them an eight to ten point edge. I think it’s going to go all the way to five, and I think Melbourne is going to win on their home court."

DJ Vasiljevic
"They’re both great teams and I don’t want to pick one, and I honestly believe it will go to five games. I think the league deserves five games. I would love to see Tassie win their first championship, they’ve been very successful under Scott Roth, but it’s hard to go past Dean Vickerman and the roster they’ve constructed with CG, Ian, the bigs, Shea Ili, and Delly. I can’t pick a winner, and I think it’s going to be one hell of a dogfight. In terms of Finals MVP, I like an underdog and I think Shea Ili can get it. I also think a lot of people have underestimated Milton Doyle. He’s a smooth operator and when he’s on, he’s on, but when he’s not shooting the ball well he does a lot of other things really well. He rebounds, assists, plays defence, and I think it’s one of those two."

Mark Worthington
"I think United wins the series, I think they’ve been the best team all year, but I think it’s going to go to five. The reason I like United so much is I think they have the most well-balanced team out of everyone, and they’ve been playing at a great level for a long period of time. They’ve got great leadership, and they have guys like Chris Goulding and Matthew Dellavedova who know how to get the job done. Take nothing away from the JackJumpers because they’re a very well-coaching team, but United has been the best team all year and I think they’ve got what it takes to win, and think it will be Luke Travers who wins the Larry Sengstock Trophy."

Simon Mitchell
"I’m going with Tassie because I think they’ve had a bit of an edge over Melbourne since they’ve come into the league. That first year they beat Melbourne in the semi-finals, there was a lot of conjecture going into that Finals series that Melbourne let them get a win for whatever reason at the back end of the regular season, but I remember thinking at the time Tassie had their number, and I remember them playing them earlier that year when they probably should have beaten Melbourne United, but didn’t. Ever since then I feel they’ve had a bit of a hold on them, but Melbourne has gone some way to rectifying that this season. They were probably a bit unlucky at home early in the season when Milton Doyle got hold of them in the last quarter, but I feel like Melbourne should have won that one. I like the discipline of Tasmania ... they just don’t seem to defeat themselves, I feel like their matchups are really strong against Melbourne, I feel like McVeigh is going to play a really big roll, and I just feel like they’re going to come out on top."

Lanard Copeland
"Are you kidding me? Wow. I’m going to say Melbourne in five, but with an asterisk on it. It’s been a long time since we’ve had two teams that are so evenly matched and two coaches that are so talented and know what they’re doing. Because Melbourne has home court advantage, I’m going to say Melbourne, but I would not be surprised one iota if Tassie walks out of here with the championship trophy. Grand Final MVP will either be Matthew Dellavedova if Melbourne win, or if Tassie wins it’s probably going to be McVeigh."

Will either team take the title in fewer than five games?