R18 Preview: New Zealand Breakers vs Cairns Taipans

When: 7.30pm (AEST), Monday April 4 2022

Where: MyState Bank Arena, Hobart

Broadcast: ESPN; Kayo; Sky Sport NZ


Who won last time?

Cairns 93 (Noi 19, Kuol 17, Jawai 16) d New Zealand 90 (Wetzell 21, Dieng 20, Besson 16) – Round 17, Cairns Convention Centre

The Taipans appeared to control much of this match but couldn’t put the plucky Kiwis to bed. New Zealand pulled within a basket five times in the final three minutes, but each time Cairns had the answers on the next possession, keeping their cool from the foul line to ice the victory. Wingmen Kouat Noi and Bul Kuol combined for 36 points at 77 per cent.


What happened last start?

That was the second successive heart-breaking loss for the Breakers, who have dropped their past four games by a total of 16 points – including two periods of overtime – with three of them by a single shot. They have Perth, South East Melbourne, Sydney and Tasmania in their following four games, so toppling the Taipans looks their best chance at a win.

Cairns are starting to get used to winning. They claimed two of their opening three, and now three of their past four for a bookend record of 5-2, but the sorry story in between was two Ws from 14 games. While they're in rare offensive form, their next five feature Tasmania, Melbourne, Perth, Melbourne and Sydney. They too must make the most of Monday night.


Who’s in form?

Ousmane Dieng – ‘Ousy’ has got NBA scouts and draft experts talking French with his recent form, the 18 year-old 206cm guard-in-the-making scoring in double-figures in six of his past eight games, and doing it with grace. He was nothing short of superb against Cairns last week with 20 points at 50 per cent, including 6/8 from inside the arc on his stylish drives.

Scott Machado – In the past four games, Machado has dished out 35 assists to just 11 turnovers, after having 21 to 14 in the previous four. His averages over the most recent quartet are 14.3 points, 8.8 assists, 4.0 rebounds and two triples, while last week against New Zealand he had 15 points, seven dimes, five boards, three treys at 60 per cent and just one cough-up.

Impressive improvisation from Scott Machado.#NBL22 on @ESPNAusNZ + @kayosports ? pic.twitter.com/5mJBZRo2lD

— The NBL (@NBL) March 27, 2022

Who needs to be?

Kouat Noi – While Kouat’s offensive form is sparkling again after such a long stint on the sidelines – averaging 14.3ppg at 55 per cent in his past three outings, including 19 on 7/9 against New Zealand – he needs to be ready to play some defence on Dieng and Tom Abercrombie. In Cairns’ past three wins they are -6 with Noi on court and +24 the rest of the way.

Tom Abercrombie – Tom is another man working back into form after a lengthy lay-off, averaging 15ppg on 12/23 from range in three games against Perth and Brisbane. He didn’t get going offensively against Cairns, but the Breakers were +8 in his 30:31 and -11 in the other 9:29 due to his ability to defend Machado and switch onto the Snakes’ mobile bigs.


Who’s statting up?

 - In their past 85 minutes, the Breakers have scored 190 points at 49 per cent. In the same time, their opponents have racked up 194 points at 54 per cent and 60 per cent inside the arc

 - In those two losses, by a combined four points, New Zealand were outscored 104-66 in the paint

 - Cairns have won three of their past four games, averaging 94.0ppg at 51 per cent. Over the rest of the season they’ve averaged 75.6ppg at 40 per cent

  - When the total game score is below 170 points the Taipans are 2-14, but when it tops that mark they are 4-1, with their only loss to the red-hot Sydney Kings


Who’s matching up?

Yanni Wetzell v Keanu Pinder – There’s been plenty of talk about Pinder’s outstanding form this season – he exemplified that with 21 points and 12 boards against South East Melbourne on Saturday – but if we’re being frank he had a shocker against New Zealand last round. After scoring two buckets in the opening minute, he fouled out in 10:01 and had four turnovers in that time.

The main beneficiary of that was Wetzell, who drew two of those whistles on Pinder and finished the night with 21 points on 7/8 shooting, eight rebounds and two assists. In two meetings with the Taipans, the Pretzel has delivered 44 points at 75 per cent, 22 rebounds, eight o-boards, six assists and the Breakers have been +9 with him on and -11 when he’s off.

Yanni Wetzell can't be stopped ?? The @NZBreakers star has 17 first half points ? Watch #NBL22 on @ESPNAusNZ + @kayosports ? pic.twitter.com/Itvjj2OIgQ

— The NBL (@NBL) February 14, 2022

Who’s talking the talk?

As NBL22 progressed, Breakers boss Dan Shamir understandably became a more and more frustrated man as one loss followed another, and one injury followed another.

And while there was a myriad of causes for his frustrations, on game day it was the officials who increasingly bore the brunt of it.

However, Shamir has a different approach to the likes of Trevor Gleeson and Dean Vickerman, not just repeatedly yelling out ‘foul’ or ‘hey’ from the sidelines to apply verbal pressure on the whistle.

Shamir instead wants to discuss the technical aspects of how the game is being called. In a match-up with Tasmania earlier in the season, he took to using calls that went in his team’s favour to talk about why those decisions were incorrect.

Most frustrating for Shamir was the way the legal guarding position and the player cylinder were not being whistled down under as they are in most top leagues around the world.

That adjustment has now been made and points are flowing freely in the back-end of the season, and while that hasn’t helped New Zealand’s struggling defence, it has allowed the world to see the incredible gifts of precocious teenager Ousmane Dieng.

“When we brought Ousmane to the Breakers, this is the player we had in mind,” Shamir said.

“You can see his versatility, not a lot of players on the planet at the age of 18 have the skill and the IQ and just the talent that he has.

“You never know how long it will take and he started the season and for a long time struggled with so many things, with the physicality of the thing, with the natural adjustment. We all didn’t know if he was going to make (improvements).

“We believed it was only a matter of time but we didn’t know how long it would take, and right now he’s at the point where it’s just great to have him on the floor, great to put the ball in his hands to see the things that he's doing.”

Next Star Ousmane Dieng dropped a season-high 20 points against Cairns in Round 17 ? Dieng is making noise at the back end of #NBL22 with one eye on the NBA Draft ?? pic.twitter.com/ISsiQwF90Y

— The NBL (@NBL) March 28, 2022

Dieng had his first 20-point game last start against Cairns, and has averaged 13ppg at 45 per cent since the start March, up from 4.8ppg at 27 per cent up until then.

It's no surprise that form, and the greater freedom of movement offensive players are now enjoying, has coincided with the Breakers averaging 87ppg in regulation over their past five outings.

“We made the effort, executed pretty well, it’s a few games we’re getting to 90 points. (We) played against a lot of switching defence that gets you a little bit stagnant, but we did move the ball and did a get a lot of good looks,” Shamir said after their narrow loss to Cairns.

“We struggled defensively and it’s every game, today we couldn’t keep the Taipans off the free-throw line.

“They shot 36 (foul shots), we were complaining a lot, but we were also fouling a lot and this is not part of playing great defence to put opponents on the free-throw line.”

That was like manna from heaven for the undermanned Snakes, who themselves had struggled mightily for points until recent weeks, compounded by the absence of Tahj McCall and Stephen Zimmerman.

Given Adam Forde’s men have shot sub-30 per cent from range this season, they were delighted by Shamir’s strategy of applying heat on the perimeter.

“New Zealand were so aggressive getting up and denying the lanes, especially when they were doing their switching coverage,” Forde said.

“They were really trying to blow up the hand-off action, the on-balls, so that presents opportunities on the rim.”

Young Bul coming through ?@CairnsTaipans rookie Bul Kuol showing off his hops. #NBL22 on @ESPNAusNZ + @kayosports ? pic.twitter.com/Wsvg1o3dhd

— The NBL (@NBL) March 27, 2022

Bul Kuol made the most of those, and so did Nate Jawai, who dominated inside en route to 16 points, his highest tally since he burned Perth for 20 last season.

“He’s battling through injury, he’s not 100 per cent, he’s sore, he’s really, really sore and we went over on his minutes last game, with the idea that we could stay within what we wanted to do tonight,” Forde said.

“Keanu fouling out after nine minutes and a few other guys being in foul trouble, we had to go to Nate and to Nate’s credit he stepped up and played through it.

“We just kept trying to feed it into him and it was beneficial.”

Neither of these teams can make the playoffs, but every win is beneficial for struggling sides as they look to finish with a strong, positive culture leading into next season.

With the Breakers currently in last place, two games behind Adelaide and 2.5 adrift of the Snakes, this is an opportunity for Adam Forde’s men to slam the door shut on the wooden spoon.

“At this stage of the season all we’re playing for is pride,” he said after last round’s win over New Zealand.

“This was a game to stay off the bottom of the ladder for a couple of weeks, that’s a pride thing. It’s a bit of a gut check and as grindy as it was, and as foul prone as both teams were, and everything in between, it was good that the guys took that opportunity to get the win.”