Preview: Sydney v Cairns (Playoffs Game One)

When: 7.30pm (AEDT), Wednesday 15 February, 2023
Where: Qudos Bank Arena, Sydney
Broadcast: ESPN; Foxtel; Kayo; Sky NZ
LIVE SCORES AND STATS

Who won last time?

Cairns 94 (Pinder 30, Hogg 20, McCall 18) d Sydney 88 (Cooks 25, Glover 16, Walton 15) OT – Round 8 at Cairns Convention Centre

In a playoff-like affair Keanu Pinder and Xavier Cooks put on an absolute show, but the Taipans had no answers for the MVP as he racked up 25 points in 20 minutes. When Cooks fouled out the Kings led by 14 with 7:44 to play and appeared in control, but DJ Hogg had other ideas and scored 12 points on the run home, including back-to-back triples in the final minute to send the contest to overtime. From there, Pinder took care of business with eight extra-period points to guide Cairns to the win.

What happened last game?

Hogg was at it again in Sunday’s sudden-death clash with Perth, and scored a Taipans finals record 32 points, including 20 in the opening half to build a buffer the Wildcats could never bridge. While Cairns was sloppy with the ball at times and left plenty of points on the foul line, overall they were highly-impressive at both ends without Pinder or Tahjere McCall.

Sydney last played 10 days ago and backed up their loss in Adelaide with another in Perth. Cooks didn’t play in the former and Derrick Walton Jr the latter as the Kings managed bodies for the post-season, so there won’t be too much concern about those results, however, leaking 105.7ppg in their past three outings would have been an identified area of improvement during the break.

What’s working?

Shooting at the Q – The last time the Cairns walked into Qudos Bank Arena, Adam Forde’s men ran up 103 points in a breath-taking display of transition triples and early attacks - DJ Hogg was chief destroyer and nailed 7/11 from deep. The Taipans have drained 14.5 threes at 37 per cent in two appearances in Sydney this season, and given the Kings concede a league-high 12.4 triples at 35 per cent in losses, it’s something the Snakes will be looking to repeat.

Penetrating – Establishing a set defence has been tough in this season series with the way both teams attack early, and the result has been plenty of interior scoring too. In the past two meetings Sydney has averaged 71.5ppg from ‘ones and twos’, with 82 of 97 two-point attempts from inside five feet. It hasn’t been one-way traffic though, the Taipans have made it to the foul line 67 times in those two clashes and shot 55 per cent in the paint.

What needs stopping?

Getting constricted – In their two wins Cairns has kept the Kings to 78 points in regulation – Tasmania are the only other team to keep the champs below 80 in NBL23. The Taipans’ switching with length has reduced Sydney’s ability to suck in the defence, move the ball and find good outside looks. In that pair of losses they shot 14/54 from deep and dished 30 assists to 39 turnovers, and the Snakes will be hoping to pressure them into one-on-one play again.

Xavier Cooks – In this season series the MVP has averaged 19.3ppg at 66 per cent, 9.7rpg and 4.0apg, and Sydney has been -15 in the 36 minutes he’s rested. Remarkably, Cooks has become the first player in NBL history to average at least 20 points, 10 rebounds and five assists per 36 minutes, so the Snakes aren’t alone in struggling for answers. They need to stop his interior catches - Cooks has hit 19/27 from inside four feet in their three meetings.

Who’s missing key men?

Keanu Pinder remains sidelined, while Tahjere McCall failed his fitness test, and the Kings' Jackson Makoi will miss the NBL Finals with a knee injury.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Tahjere McCall has not passed his pre-game fitness test and will not suit up tonight. <br><br>? Update brought to you by <a href="https://twitter.com/CQU?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@CQU</a> Exercise &amp; Sports Sciences. <a href="https://t.co/nZpt4qukzp">pic.twitter.com/nZpt4qukzp</a></p>&mdash; Cairns Taipans (@CairnsTaipans) <a href="https://twitter.com/CairnsTaipans/status/1625762301839298560?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 15, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Who’s matching up?

Derrick Walton v Cairns – There are few as good in the NBL at finding the seams as Cooks, and just as few at making the pass into the cracks as Walton. However, Bul Kuol’s length and Cairns’ switching defence has made life tough for the NBL All-First Teamer, who has averaged 13.7ppg on 12/32 shooting (39%), while dishing 4.7 assists to 4.7 turnovers in the season series, the Kings are -28 with him on the floor but +17 with Shaun Bruce running the show.

DJ Vasiljevic v Shannon Scott – Vasiljevic’s numbers against Cairns aren't great either – 14ppg at 30 per cent – but these teams haven't met since November and he’s a different prospect now, having delivered 19.8ppg on 3.8 triples at 56 per cent in his past six games. Scott was meticulous against Perth with eight dimes and one turnover. When he has at least five assists and one or fewer turnovers the Taipans are a near-unbeaten 8-1.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Vasiljevic chalks it up in style for his side!<br><br>Catch it all on ESPN via Kayo Sports + Foxtel<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/WeTheKings?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#WeTheKings</a> <a href="https://t.co/zVBkxoSWEB">pic.twitter.com/zVBkxoSWEB</a></p>&mdash; Sydney Kings (@SydneyKings) <a href="https://twitter.com/SydneyKings/status/1621430722929037312?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 3, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Who’s saying what?

Cairns coach Adam Forde made an interesting comment after his team defeated Perth to move into the final four.

“There’s no pressure on us. No one’s expecting anything from us, they haven't all season,” he said.

While that may ring true in the Taipans’ us-against-the-rest bubble, the NBL community took notice of this orange outfit a long time ago.

The alarm bells first rang in earnest way back in Round 3 when they strolled into Sydney and held the free-wheeling Kings to 78 points to produce what was, at the time, a stunning upset.

Forde’s men applied remarkable hand pressure that night to cause deflection after deflection en route to 18 Kings’ turnovers, while beating the champs on the boards and nullifying them in the paint in a clinical display.

“For us we’re just plotting those KPIs as we go, we’re not trying to go by anyone else’s beat of the drum,” Forde said afterwards.

“So for us to stay composed when numerous times there was adversity, whether it be match-ups, whether it be particularly moments in the game we stayed solid.

“Keanu fouled out, we stayed solid. Shannon cramped up, we stayed solid, and that’s what’s important.”

Their pressure resulted in the Kings being anything but solid.

“Turnovers are frustrating, offensive rebounds are frustrating, we spot them 10 extra possessions on five extra offensive rebounds, five extra turnovers, we were awful with the ball,” coach Chase Buford said.

“You can’t get ripped one-on-one in this league, that’s unacceptable, you're not going to win games if they just take it from you over and over. We've got to be better.”

The other area that troubled Sydney was the Snakes’ early passing in transition and the ability of their bigs to connect from range, opening up the usually-guarded Kings keyway.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">HOGG FOR THREEEEE ?<br>He&#39;s hit FIVE triples tonight!!<br><br>? <a href="https://twitter.com/Dj_hogg1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@Dj_hogg1</a> | ? <a href="https://twitter.com/espn?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@espn</a> <a href="https://t.co/ksKx5tDajv">pic.twitter.com/ksKx5tDajv</a></p>&mdash; Cairns Taipans (@CairnsTaipans) <a href="https://twitter.com/CairnsTaipans/status/1624623982812221441?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 12, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

They were at that again in Round 5 as they ran up 103 points to fall a Kouat Noi buzzer-beater short of forcing overtime.

“Credit to Cairns it felt like they couldn’t miss for a while, I'm wondering how we held them to 103, it felt like they were going to score 150 at one point,” Buford said.

“We were so bad defensively all over the place. We wanted to adjust to some of their shooters but we screwed up coverages on that, we blew our normal base style, we were never defending the rim, it was just a disaster defensively.”

The Taipans led that game by 11 late in the third quarter, and Buford’s response was to go with his own shooter-filled line-up with Xavier Cooks at the five and Noi at power forward.

All of a sudden it was coach Forde with the headaches.

“We were jumping at shadows, when for a good portion of that first half we stuck to the game plan of sinking it in and then suddenly we’re chasing non-shooters on the perimeter like they're Steph Curry,” he said afterwards.

“We didn’t have to make any adjustments, they didn’t put out knock-down shooters, so they were running the weave action and we were chasing it on the perimeter for some reason, dumb basketball.”

While Cairns and the Kings rank second and third defensively, their offensive versatility and speed has created plenty of challenges for each other.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Cooks&#39; Sunday afternoon special ??‍?<br><br>? ESPN, 10Peach, 10Play<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/WeTheKings?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#WeTheKings</a> <a href="https://t.co/RzmtGLcP2X">pic.twitter.com/RzmtGLcP2X</a></p>&mdash; Sydney Kings (@SydneyKings) <a href="https://twitter.com/SydneyKings/status/1622111364620615680?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 5, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Without Keanu Pinder and Tahjere McCall, the Snakes became a five-out nightmare for the Wildcats, allowing DJ Hogg and Co to shoot a ridiculous 68 per cent from two-point range while still banging in 12 triples.

If McCall isn’t cleared to play on Wednesday, the Taipans will look to employ a similar recipe, but coach Forde knows it won’t be so easy.

“What we face now against Sydney is a very different team who have a great defence,” he said.

“There were a lot of hard shows tonight, Sydney are going to be plugging it against our non-shooters and drops against our dynamic bigs, so we’re going to have to make some adjustments.”

Cairns have been making great adjustments throughout their seemingly-constant injury challenges, with Bul Kuol becoming an offensive focal point and Lat Mayen stepping up from little-used reserve to a 32-minute Rock of Gibraltar in a knockout final.

Ben Ayre bounced back from a disappointing performance against Tasmania, Majok Deng has stepped up while DJ Hogg got the memo that he has to be ‘the man’ with Pinder and McCall sidelined.

“I didn’t like that we left that (JackJumpers) game with DJ only having 11 attempts. There’s a part where DJ is very humble and he’s a great teammate, but I need him to be a little bit more aggressive with getting those touches,” Forde said.

“I'm not asking guys to play outside their role, do your job, this is your job description. The same way chefs prepare food, the same way I'm supposed to coach, the same way the officials are supposed to officiate.

“These guys just have to play what they’ve been doing their entire careers – Lat, Ben, DJ, it’s all different but you fit that piece of the puzzle.”

The Kings have cooked up quality basketball all season, and while the headlines often go to their superstars, Forde is well aware their bench unit is a deadly combination with Shaun Bruce, Angus Glover, Noi, Jaylin Galloway and Jordan Hunter all high-level contributors on any given night.

“The championship runs through Sydney. They’ve won it, they’ve proved themselves to be the team to beat again,” he said.

“They’ve got the league MVP, they’ve got two first-teamers, they’ve got fantastic coach, they’ve got great role players, they go deep into the bench, they're the best team. They're sitting on top of the ladder for a reason.”

Coach Buford is full of praise for the Taipans, and knows his team will have to improve their recent defensive efforts against a spread-out offence and be better prepared for the Snakes’ pressure.

With Hogg now at power forward, it creates a challenging match-up for Cooks, who wants to be helping in the paint and cleaning the glass. Will we see Justin Simon take that job in a cross-match? Buford has had much to ponder.

“Cairns is a different team now than they were earlier in the season,” he said.

“Without Keanu Pinder, who’s a terrific player, they’re going to be a different-looking squad than they were when they played us, but they still have a ton of shooting and a ton of great things they do.

“They’ve dealt with tough injuries to big players and they’ve just come together and played as a group. It’s been really impressive to see ... Cairns has been terrific with its back against the wall for a while now.

“They’re a tough defensive unit and they’re going to be up and in us all night long. We’ll have to be ready to hand that pressure, for sure.”