Why Perth Holds the Key to Final Round Scenarios

The NBL23 finals race is “clear as mud” according to Liam Santamaria, but the NBL analyst believes the Perth Wildcats are the team that holds the key to unlocking the top six race.

The Wildcats, who currently sit in fifth position, play the Cairns Taipans and Sydney Kings in their final two games of the season. With the way the ladder sits Perth's results could mathematically impact every position on the table from second to eighth – such is the closeness of this season’s competition.

Santamaria says the entire finals scenario heading into Round 18 is borderline unprecedented.

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“I’m sure it’s more clear when teams are just looking at it from their perspective – ‘we need this to happen or that to happen’ – but for the rest of us looking at the entire landscape of the different ways it could play out, what a cool scenario to have heading into the final round,” Santamaria said on NBL Today.

“I think it’s a pretty straightforward scenario for Tassie … South East Melbourne the same.

“With Perth that game against Cairns and then that final game against the Sydney Kings, that for me is the fulcrum around which everything else rotates.

“There’s going to be all eyes on New Zealand when they take on Illawarra in terms of that race for second spot, and from there it’s Perth and Cairns and how it’s all going to fall from there.”

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Further muddying the waters of the finals permutations is Perth’s last game of the season – which comes against the Sydney Kings in the last game of the regular season.

The Kings have already locked away first position on the ladder and may choose to rest some key players for their away trip to Perth on the final day.

On the chance Sydney do rest players against Perth and lose at RAC Arena, the decision could be felt around the competition and directly impact the finals hopes of the likes of Melbourne, Tasmania, South East Melbourne and Adelaide.

Santamaria says the decision looms as a difficult one for Chase Buford and his staff.

“I’m really fascinated to see how Sydney approaches that final game because they’re locked into first,” he said. “If you have a sore body here or there and it’s the final game of the season how do you manage it?

“You’ve got this situation where they’re going to have a big break, so you want to take momentum into the finals.

“There are a lot of different ways to approach that final game.

“It’s all going to become clearer game after game as they tick off over then next four or five days.”

Round 18 kicks off on Thursday night when the Illawarra Hawks host the New Zealand Breakers.