The Run Home: Can Tasmania hold on?

Things are beginning to heat up with only a few rounds left of the NBL season as the fight for the top two and sixth spot ramps up.

With Adelaide’s shock loss to Tasmania last week, they now face an almighty battle to keep themselves in the hunt for the spot in the Play-In that the JackJumpers currently hold.

Welcome back to The Run Home, where all eyes are on what teams are competing for the important positions in the standings as the finals draw near.

15 wins, 8 losses, 108.83 per cent
(Games remaining: 6)

The Hawks are still in control of their own destiny to secure top spot, albeit that gap has closed slightly with their loss in Adelaide. It sets up for a huge game in Round 17 against Melbourne, which will likely dictate how the ladder will finish at the end of the season. They have a friendly schedule after that, with three games against three of the bottom four teams to round out their season.

The run home
R17: Vs Melbourne
R17: Vs Brisbane
R18: @ Cairns
R19: @ Tasmania
R20: @ New Zealand
R20: Vs Sydney

15 wins, 9 losses, 104.43 per cent
(Games remaining: 5)

United bounced back into form with two big wins in the context of their season in Round 16. Both of which came in the clutch moments with well executed plays that got them over the line by the smallest of margins. Now the task for Melbourne is to hold onto second spot, where the team has sat for most of the season. It’s a challenging schedule remaining, with their only two home games coming against team’s that have caused them issues this season.

The run home
R17: @ Illawarra
R17: @ Perth
R18: @ Brisbane
R19: Vs Tasmania
R20: Vs South East Melbourne

13 wins, 9 losses, 102.72per cent
(Games remaining: 7)

The Wildcats are just one game away from returning to RAC Arena, where they will play five more times before the end of the season. They have been rolling on the road, compiling wins and putting themselves in striking distance of the top two. With the remaining fixture, the Wildcats should be feeling very confident that they can achieve that.

The run home
R16: @ Brisbane
R17: Vs Adelaide
R17: Vs Melbourne
R18: Vs Cairns
R19: Vs South East Melbourne
R19: @ Sydney
R20: Vs Adelaide

14 wins, 10 losses, 104.17 per cent
(Games remaining: 5)

It was a mixed bag of results for the Kings in Round 16 as they fell short to United, after an inspired comeback attempt, then managed to escape with a tough victory against Cairns. Sydney still haven’t found the consistent form it’s been looking for all season, but the Kings will be tested in their final five games by teams who are all desperate to win for different reasons.

The run home
R17: V Tasmania
R17: @ South East Melbourne
R18: V Adelaide
R19: @ Perth
R20: @ Illawarra

13 wins, 10 losses, 104.71 per cent
(Games remaining: 6)

While the news of Derrick Walton Jr’s hamstring injury couldn’t have come at a worse time, the Phoenix still went up to Cairns and pulled away a big win in the fourth quarter. The positive for Josh King is that they have already showed they’re capable of getting big wins without their star guard, which is the challenge they face for the rest of the season. With two of their remaining home games at the State Basketball Centre, the Phoenix should be settling for nothing less than a top four spot.

The run home
R17: Vs New Zealand
R17: Vs Sydney
R18: Vs Tasmania
R19: @ Perth
R19: Vs Adelaide
R20: @ Melbourne

12 wins, 11 losses, 97.88 per cent
(Games remaining: 6)

The win over Adelaide could end up being the reason that the reigning champions hold onto a Play-In spot, because the 36ers look the most likely team to make a run at the top six. Tasmania has a really tough schedule remaining, including a trip over to New Zealand and having to play the top two in the league before it finishes up against Cairns. Their percentage isn’t ideal, but it is currently better than the 36ers’, so that is something to watch closely. 

The run home
R17: @ New Zealand
R17: @ Sydney
R18: @ South East Melbourne
R19: Vs Illawarra
R19: @ Melbourne
R20: Vs Cairns

10 wins, 12 losses, 98.19 per cent
(Games remaining: 7)

The negative for the Bullets is that they’ve been decimated by injuries lately and it comes at the worst possible time for a team who needs wins in a hurry. The positive is that they still have plenty of games left if they want to get into the top six. With Casey Prather and Keandre Cook still fit and firing, they have the weapons that can put up a big score to compete. With double headers in the next two weeks, it’s now or never for Brisbane fans.

The run home
R16: Vs Perth
R17: Vs Cairns
R17: @ Illawarra
R18: @ New Zealand
R18: Vs Melbourne
R19: @ Adelaide
R20: @ Cairns

10 wins, 12 losses, 96.01 per cent
(Games remaining: 7)

The equation for the 36ers to make finals just got increasingly harder after they dropped that game to Tasmania last round. Their best is more than capable of winning every remaining game, but it looks as if they will need to win at least four from seven if they want to play finals basketball. With the percentage sitting as the worst amongst the three teams competing for that sixth spot, Adelaide needs to win and win big in their remaining schedule.

The run home
R17: @ Perth
R17: @ Cairns
R18: @ Sydney
R18: Vs New Zealand
R19: Vs Brisbane
R19: @ South East Melbourne
R20: @ Perth

8 wins, 15 losses, 93.66 per cent
(Games remaining: 6)

New Zealand continues to battle hard and was close to pulling off a big win against Melbourne in New Plymouth. With finals out of the equation, five of the Breakers’ last six games are against teams with something to play for. Now is their opportunity to become an obstacle for a team like Adelaide or Tasmania who want to make the top six.

The run home
R17: Vs Tasmania
R17: @ South East Melbourne
R18: Vs Brisbane
R18: @ Adelaide
R19: Vs Cairns
R20: @ Illawarra

4 wins, 18 losses, 89.16 per cent
(Games remaining: 7)

The Taipans had a chance to beat the Kings with some stellar guard play, but ultimately fell short and also struggled to compete with the Phoenix down the stretch on Tuesday night. Similar to New Zealand, the Taipans can cause havoc on the competition in their remaining games and really dictate the shape of the final ladder. With two games left against Brisbane, they could drive a dagger into the Bullets’ season if they get the job done.

The run home
R17: @ Brisbane
R17: Vs Adelaide
R18: Vs Illawarra
R18: @ Perth
R19: @ New Zealand
R20: Vs Brisbane
R20: @ Tasmania