R21 Preview: Tasmania JackJumpers vs Melbourne United

When: 5.30pm (AEST), Saturday 23 April, 2022

Where: MyState Bank Arena, Hobart

Broadcast: ESPN; Kayo; Sky Sports NZ


Who won the last time?
Tasmania 94 (McVeigh 17, Adams 16, McIntosh 16) d Melbourne 85 (Goulding 29, Lual-Acuil 26, Dellavedova 11) – Round 10, John Cain Arena, Melbourne

This was the day the JackJumpers announced their arrival. Having strangled Sydney 77-70 on the Friday, they marched into Melbourne on Sunday and shot the champs off their own floor. MiKyle McIntosh was the game-breaker with a stunning display of one-on-one scoring in the opening half, while Chris Goulding and Jo Lual-Acuil were unstoppable for United.

What happened last start?

The JackJumpers were back in Melbourne last Sunday and once again breaking hearts, ending South East Melbourne’s season with a stunning 32-point third quarter, while holding the Phoenix to 32 for the entire second half to retrieve a 15-point deficit. Josh Adams and Jack McVeigh drained 9/19 from long range to have Tasmanians now level with Perth.

United took care of business against Cairns, falling nine down in the second term before unleashing a 68-39 run over the next 25 minutes as Goulding, Shea Ili and Matthew Dellavedova dropped 11/20 from outside. It wasn’t a vintage performance but it locked in the minor premiership, now how will Dean Vickerman manage the minutes on Saturday?


Who’s in form?

Shea Ili – With Delly’s date with the dentist keeping him out of this pre-playoff contest, you can bet Ili will get his fair share of minutes and try to leave a mark on Josh Magette in case they meet again on Thursday in Game 1. Last round, Shili had 15 assists, seven steals, one turnover and went +36 in 52 minutes – is he the league’s most underrated player?

Jack McVeigh – McTrey just keeps delivering. Against South East Melbourne he top-scored with 26 points at 52 per cent to go with nine rebounds in a crunch game. Last time against Melbourne he led the JJs scoring chart with 17 points, and he’s only failed to reach double-figures once in 14 games since Valentine’s Day. Can he stretch Jack White away from the defensive glass?

https://twitter.com/NBL/status/1515551288955600898



Who needs to be?

Caleb Agada – While there are plenty of candidates for this mantle, no United player outworks Agada, who has been the unassuming leader of Melbourne’s defence with his constant energy and physicality. However, for United to reclaim the title, they need him hitting open shots, and his streak of 11-straight long-range misses needs to end.

Matt Kenyon – If Tassie progress through the playoffs, Kenyon will have to defend the likes of Goulding, Tyler Harvey and Jaylen Adams, but they won’t get there unless he can keep a lid on CG43 on Saturday. The reality is when Kenyon is on the floor, the JackJumpers defence is world class, when he’s not they are just a run-of-the mill defensive team.


Who’s statting up?

 - In Kenyon’s 15:47 on court, SE Melbourne scored just 22 points at 37 per cent and the JJs were +25. In the other 24:13, the Phoenix scored 58 points at 49 per cent and Tassie were -21. Tasmania are 164 points better off with Kenyon on court than on the bench this season

 - In the JackJumpers’ opening nine games they averaged 7.7 triples at 26 per cent, outscoring opponents by 1.3ppg from the arc. In 18 games since they’ve averaged 11.7 treys at 36 per cent and outscored opponents by 13ppg from outside

 - Chris Goulding has averaged 4.8 three-pointers at 48 per cent in his past four games. United are 15-2 when CG43 hits three triples or more, compared to 5-5 when he doesn’t

- In their past five losses, Melbourne’s opponents have averaged 27.6 free-throw attempts, compared to 17.8 across the rest of the season. Tasmania have shot 25 foul shots per game against United, the most of any team in the competition


Who’s matching up?

Josh Adams v Chris Goulding – JA is the shot-maker the JJs rely on when the offence is breaking down, with his ability to shoot contested threes, pull-up twos and finish at the hoop. The JackJumpers are 10-4 when he scores 16 or more, and were 3-6 as he shot 9/50 from range in the opening nine games, and 13-5 since as he’s landed a deadly 40 per cent.

Goulding is Melbourne’s barometer, the champs 9-1 when he scores 18 or more. That one loss? To Tasmania, when he sizzled with 29 points but only Lual-Acuil came along for the ride. CG is in ominous form – averaging 20ppg at 50 per cent the past four games – but how many minutes will he play as United look to have the 33-year-old primed for the playoffs?

https://twitter.com/MelbUnited/status/1516011753100165125


Who’s talking the talk?

For Melbourne United, this final regular season game could be a bit like dancing with your sister.

They’ve got top spot locked up, they host Game 1 of the semi-finals in five days’ time and it could well be against the JackJumpers if they can’t get over the line on Saturday night.

There are a lot of scenarios to consider. Is an ailing Perth sans Vic Law a preferred match-up, or is taking on Bryce Cotton in the playoffs fraught with danger?

Is an inexperienced expansion team a good path to the grand final, or does the JackJumpers’ outstanding recent form make them a danger team to avoid?

For Dean Vickerman, none of that is worth considering, he’ll leave that to the fans.

He knows the JackJumpers are playing for their playoff lives, and he wants his team to be able to withstand that on the road and emerge victorious.

“I've never been one to go into a game and not try and win,” he said.

“Whatever happens in that last game, unless someone is injured and can’t play, we’ll play everybody and we’ll make sure we’re getting ready for the finals.”

That means honing their ability to turn their stingy defence into early scoring opportunities.

https://twitter.com/MelbUnited/status/1516006625232187397


“It was about getting stops and being aggressive on the other end,” Chris Goulding said after his team ran away from Cairns last round.  

“Getting stops and playing at pace, setting the standard on our aggressiveness at both ends of the floor.”

They struggled with that across the opening 12 minutes, scoring just 19 points as the Taipans racked up 28 thanks to their aggression and athleticism.

“Our mindset and aggressiveness at both ends of the floor and to stop putting them at the foul line,” Goulding identified as the turning point.

“It’s hard to play the way we want to play when we’re either taking the ball out of bounds or they're having foul shots.”

That’s what happened in Round 10 as the JackJumpers got hot in the first quarter, then survived at the foul line with 27 charity shots in the final 30 minutes.

“We would do things that shot us in the foot, some fouls that put them on the line. Them shooting 30 free throws, any time we over-helped they punished us,” Vickerman said.

Melbourne were the better team over the final 24 minutes of the game, but giving up a remarkable 52 points in the opening 16 minutes was the killer.

https://twitter.com/ESPNAusNZ/status/1490180564959129601


“As a group we didn’t get into our individual scouts in the first few minutes, their keys guys came out of that first quarter pretty comfortable,” Vickerman said.

“In the second half of that first quarter McIntosh was a beast and he got rolling and it took a while in that second quarter for us to make a change about how we play defence … The way we came out in the second half was different.”

A big difference in the teams’ two meetings has been points in the paint. With Will Magnay missing the first and hampered by injury in the second, United outscored the expansionists 96-52 inside, Jo Lual-Acuil with 45 points at 61 per cent in the season series.

A big difference between the two games was the absence of Ariel Hukporti and Jack White in the JackJumpers’ win.

The Tasmanian’s scored 94 points at 43 per cent in that game, up from 72 points at 36 per cent in the Round 5 meeting in Hobart.

The loss of that duo also hurt Melbourne’s ability to rotate bodies, their bench outscored 32-11 in the loss compared to winning that category 27-17 five weeks earlier.

It was a test of the JackJumpers’ underrated depth and they passed it with flying colours.

“We bent a little bit but we didn’t break,” Scott Roth said.

“This is one of the first times we've been pressured like we normally pressure teams so I think it was a great experience for us to go through that on the road.”

https://twitter.com/baileykenzie01/status/1490581094932135939


Now they have the chance to move into fourth place – and force Perth to beat the Phoenix on Sunday to dislodge them – and they can do it at the Anthill, where they are an impressive 9-6 this season.

“Our home crowds have been spectacular and I don’t think it’s going to be any different for our last game,” Roth said.

“We just focus on United, go through the process and as I've mentioned before, (after) the 28th game we’ll be where we’re supposed to me if we take care of our business.

“We control what we control and that’s what’s in front of us.”

United are a spectacular 11-2 on the road this season, including 9-2 outside of Melbourne, but Vickerman knows a sixth-straight away win won’t come easy in Tassie, and that’s how he wants it leading into the post-season.

“There’s no better preparation for a finals game than playing against a team that is so close to the finals and is going to play at an amazingly high level for their last home game of the year,” he said.