Preview: Tasmania v New Zealand (Playoffs Game 2)

When: 7.30pm (AEDT), Thursday 16 February, 2023
Where: MyState Bank Arena, Hobart
Broadcast: ESPN; Kayo; Foxtel; Sky NZ; Prime NZ
LIVE SCORES AND STATS

Who won the last time?

New Zealand 88 (Pardon 15, McDowell-White 13, Brown 11) d Tasmania 68 (Kelly 12, Doyle 10) – Playoffs Game 1 at Spark Arena, Auckland

The Breakers jumped clear early in Game 1 as Tasmania struggled to convert their open looks, but the visitors kept coming and behind the energy of Rashard Kelly peeled off a 20-6 run to pull within two at the main break. Then New Zealand upped the defensive ante and the JackJumpers lost their composure before reverting to one-out basketball which the Breakers were happy to rebound and run on. They cruised to victory on the back of a 49-31 second half.

What’s working?

Good Will hunting – New Zealand run their half-court sets through their emerging Australian point guard and for good reason. In 19 possessions where Will McDowell-White executed the high ball-screen the Breakers scored 29 points at 69 per cent. Ten times Tassie denied him access to the screen for a return of nine points at 38 per cent. When someone else used the high screen they got three points from six possessions.

On all other types of half-court sets – post-ups, isolations, wing ball-screens etc – New Zealand scored 21 points from 24 possessions, shooting at 46 per cent and committing 10 of their 16 turnovers. To prevail in Game 2, Tasmania simply can’t allow the ball back into McDowell-White's hands after simple motion from where he can roll into ball-screen action at the top of the arc. They must dare to win at both ends of the floor.

Sharing is caring – While it's a nice motto to encourage teams to pass the ball, it’s life or death for Tassie against New Zealand’s stifling defence. In 18 half-court sets in Game 1 where they had four or more passes the JackJumpers scored 24 points at 75 per cent. In 45 half-court possessions with three or fewer exchanges, they managed 26 points at 21 per cent and committed eight of their 12 turnovers.

While New Zealand's pressure is among the best in the NBL, Tasmania’s one ‘Island Clash’ win this season was the game they played the most expansive offensively and had the most turnovers. The Breakers’ physicality is effective for what it mentally stops opponents doing, and the JackJumpers must have the fortitude to keep the ball moving – they only had four possessions with four or more passes in Sunday’s second half.

What needs stopping?

Late-game fade-outs – In their four wins over the JackJumpers New Zealand have won the fourth period by a combined 42 points and held Tasmania to an average of just 14 points in those final terms. Over the other 16 quarters of the series the Breakers are only +13. Scott Roth needs a full deck of contributors playing aggressive basketball for 40 minutes, because as soon as they play on the back foot the Breakers have put their foot to the throat.

Power forwards settling – Tasmania shot a wayward 3/15 on two-pointers from beyond six feet in Game 2 as they were outscored 40-24 in the paint, they settled too often considering when they tested the interior they got to the foul line 29 times and shot 11/21 at the rim. Chief settlers were Kelly (0/6 from midrange) and Jack McVeigh (1/4), who in the Round 12 win over NZ shot a combined 9/12 at the basket and took just three shots from midrange.

Who’s missing key men?

New Zealand are again expected to be at full strength, while the JackJumpers are without Josh Magette for the series while Clint Steindl faces a game-day fitness test.

Who’s matching up?

Milton Doyle v Rayan Rupert & Tom Abercrombie – The Breakers wing duo did a defensive job on Doyle on Sunday and tested out his ability to work the other way - they 12 points at 67 per cent in transition. As Tasmania’s offence grinded to a halt the import was starved of opportunities to finish with 10 points on nine shot attempts while dishing four assists, but his key is to forget about the officials and be present on each play at both ends.

Will Magnay v Dererk Pardon – Tasmania need Magnay to step up. In 19:31 of Game 1 he had three points on 1/2 and four rebounds. The JackJumpers missed 18 shots with him on the floor and he only pulled in one offensive rebound. While there’s no doubt Magette’s absence hurts Magnay’s involvement, he must get himself involved, and Tasmania desperately need him putting doubt in McDowell-White’s mind defensively and making sure he runs the floor with Pardon.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">DP has the muscles out early, Spark Arena is humming!! <br><br>Live Sky Sport 1 and Prime<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/UNBREAKABLE?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#UNBREAKABLE</a> <a href="https://t.co/vJ7CzbeUgw">pic.twitter.com/vJ7CzbeUgw</a></p>&mdash; Sky Sport New Zealand Breakers (@NZBreakers) <a href="https://twitter.com/NZBreakers/status/1624639614500896770?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 12, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Who’s saying what?

To understand what the Tasmania JackJumpers must overcome to force their series to Game 3 in Auckland, you only have to look at Will McDowell-White’s late-game relentlessness on Sunday.

With 3:30 to play and his team up by 14 points, McDowell-White got caught on a post-up mismatch with Jack McVeigh at the free-throw line.

First, he put two arms around his bigger opponent to try and disrupt the entry. When the ball did make it into McVeigh's hands the Breakers guard stepped straight into his cylinder, bumping his opponent physically so he was now straddling the three-point line.

Not content, McDowell-White stepped into his cylinder again, pushing him forcefully with an arm-bar so McVeigh was completely outside the arc.

Then as the JackJumpers’ marksmen tried to drive him put two hands on him to buffer him away from the driving lane, before stepping into his space again with his body to force an off-balance runner from 10 feet.

“It always seemed when we got up then they were always going to find their way back into the game but then the fourth quarter, maybe even a little more than the fourth quarter, we locked down pretty good,” McDowell-White said afterwards.

It was a credit to McVeigh that he played through such physicality and was eventually rewarded with two free throws at the end of the play.

With the offensive player’s cylinder being interpreted differently depending on whether they are a ball-handler, off-ball player or in the shooting motion, the JackJumpers must be able to play through the constant perimeter physicality to firstly get the ball, then get into the lane where they can attract a whistle and make the Breakers pay.

When they succumb to the grappling and play one-out basketball the disciplined Kiwis have punished them clinically in this season series, running roughshod in the final minutes of their four wins as the Tassie offence grinds to a halt.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">All Weeks… and double time on Sundays. <br>Watch live &amp; Free on ESPN via Foxtel &amp; Kayo Freebies, OR 10Peach &amp; 10Play <a href="https://t.co/SBalQZCKsG">pic.twitter.com/SBalQZCKsG</a></p>&mdash; Tasmania JackJumpers ? (@JackJumpers) <a href="https://twitter.com/JackJumpers/status/1624658549686308864?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 12, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

That happened soon after half-time in Game 1 – the JackJumpers had 14 possessions with four or more passes in the opening 20 minutes but just four after intermission – and they know that can’t be repeated.

“We got some good looks in the first half and didn’t knock them down, and then came out with a few too many turnovers in the second half and that was the game,” forward Jarred Bairstow said.

“Just keep moving the ball, keep owning our spots, when we do that we get great looks so we’ve just got to knock them down.”

At the other end, the Breakers shot 20/30 in paint and got to the foul line 25 times themselves, Tassie not their usual selves as they allowed McDowell-White and the Breakers to execute the on-ball without disruption.

“We didn’t get the job done in Game 1 like we hoped we would,” associate head coach Jacob Chance said.

“A lot of controllables for us, a big one keeping the ball in front of us is really important, I feel like we gave them a lot of points off simple little breakdowns that we’re usually pretty good at, that was a frustrating part of our review.”

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Taking it to the CUP ? <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NBLFINALS?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#NBLFINALS</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/UNBREAKABLE?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#UNBREAKABLE</a> <a href="https://t.co/z6UeHoSD4z">pic.twitter.com/z6UeHoSD4z</a></p>&mdash; Sky Sport New Zealand Breakers (@NZBreakers) <a href="https://twitter.com/NZBreakers/status/1624645397355569152?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 12, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Head coach Scott Roth agreed that it was just a bad day at the office after their outstanding win in Cairns.

“We just didn’t play very well. We did have some fightback but we had some poor turnovers, some self-inflicted wounds and didn’t play well, not good enough to win. The good news is this is a series so we just flush it and move on,” he said.

“We've been in this situation before (in last year’s semi-final series) with United smacking us in Melbourne and we were quite resilient back at home.”

New Zealand coach Mody Maor is well aware of that, and knows his team has never beaten the JackJumpers at MyState Bank Arena.

“The scoresheet means nothing, we look at film, we analyse what’s important, we improve what we can improve, we recover, we come back to be ourselves and compete in a gym where last time we were there we lost badly,” he said.

“They have a phenomenal coach they're a great team, they’ve been here before.”

With Tasmania sure to up their physicality on defence with the noise of affirmation on their side, and push the ball to create early movement in offence, Maor’s message to his men is do the basics well.

There was no better example of that than their Game 1 ball movement that facilitated 60 per cent shooting inside and 9/21 from the arc at 42 per cent.

As a result, eight Breakers scored between seven and 15 points, allowing them to rack up 88 despite superstar Jarell Brantley going an uncharacteristic 2/12.

“I think we made one shot off the dribble of these threes, Will at the beginning, other than this everything is wide-open catch-and-shoot threes,” he said

“The very simple things win playoff games; defensive rebounding, transition defence, not fouling.”