Preview: Sydney v New Zealand (Game 3)

When: 7.30pm (AEDT), Friday 10 March, 2023
Where: Qudos Bank Arena, Sydney
Broadcast: ESPN; Kayo; Foxtel; Sky NZ; Prime NZ
LIVE STATS AND BOX SCORE

Who won the last time?

Sydney 81 (Noi 20, Vasiljevic 16, Glover 12, Simon 12) d New Zealand 74 (Brown 21, Brantley 20, Le’afa 14) – Game 2, Spark Arena, Auckland

The Kings brought their best defence to Spark Arena in Game 2 and held New Zealand to just nine points in the opening term. They then built a 13-point lead midway through the second before Derrick Walton and Xavier Cooks were both ruled out of the game. The Breakers got back within two points on both sides of intermission, but Justin Simon produced a defensive masterclass and Kouat Noi a penetration clinic at the other end to extend Sydney’s margin back to 18, from where they held off every challenge from the home team.

What’s working?

Sydney’s second unit – In the Kings’ two losses to New Zealand their vaunted reserve crew were -9 on bench scoring with 28.5ppg at 35 per cent and an accumulated plus/minus of -22. In Game 2, with their stars sidelined, they won bench points 46-38 hitting at 45 per cent while going +50, or +10 per player. Noi was the main offensive man with 20 points, but Jordan Hunter’s 10 boards and wall-up defence and Angus Glover’s all-court energy – he is now +17 in the Championship Series, the Kings -18 without him – were just as important.

Amping it up – In Game 1 Will McDowell-White and Barry Brown received 11 second touches to run a high ball-screen resulting in 20 points at 63 per cent. In Game 2, the Kings shrunk that to just four return high on-balls for only two points. How? The biggest difference was their ball pressure and lane denial, which limited ball movement and goaded other Breakers into attacking Sydney’s interior. As a result, New Zealand had just 11 assists to 17 turnovers – with McDowell-White and Brown having six to 10 – after having 15 dimes and eight cough-ups in Game 1.

What needs stopping?

Second guessing – Another small win for Sydney was their change-up zone which, while rarely used bogged down the Breakers' ball movement and caused confusion on subsequent sets. Overall, the Kings’ pressure took away rhythm shots from predictable execution as New Zealand shot 5/24 from three in the opening three stanzas. In the final term, with nothing to lose, the Breakers pulled up with confidence against the drops defence and drained 6/11, something they’ll look to take into Friday.

‘Blow bys’ – With Cooks and Walton Jr firstly hampered and then reduced to spectators, you might think Sydney’s penetration game would suffer, but the opposite was true – 18 times the Kings blew by a Breakers defender into the paint, including 11 times in the second half for 17 points on 83 per cent shooting. Fifteen of those drives were from Noi, DJ Vasiljevic, Angus Glover and Jaylin Galloway, and the Breakers must do a better job of containing their man and sitting down on the other side of the ball-screen on defence, which is usually a strength of theirs.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Angus Glover is locked in ?<br><br>Catch it live and free on ESPN via Kayo Sports Freebies, 10Play, and 10Peach<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/WeTheKings?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#WeTheKings</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NBLFinals?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#NBLFinals</a> <a href="https://t.co/jsj1Z7oY7D">pic.twitter.com/jsj1Z7oY7D</a></p>&mdash; Sydney Kings (@SydneyKings) <a href="https://twitter.com/SydneyKings/status/1632271147000647680?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 5, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Who’s missing key men?

Both teams are expected to be at full strength.

Who’s matching up?

Xavier Cooks v Jarrell Brantley – In Game 1 New Zealand kept Cooks out of the ball-screens at all costs. With the MVP limping two days later they put him in that action early and often. What will the approach be in Game 3? When Brantley is hitting the three – he’s 40 per cent so far this series – Cooks is forced to spot him on the arc, far away from the defensive glass. If Sydney play Noi and Cooks together it allows their star to anchor the rebounding and spark their transition game. A chess battle could well ensure around this match-up.

Tim Soares & Jordan Hunter v Dererk Pardon & Rob Loe – While having Cooks at the five allows Sydney to be more versatile defensively, Hunter’s verticality in drops defence allowed his guards to be up-and-in throughout Game 2, knowing there were no easy baskets for Barry Brown and Co once forced into penetration. Hunter has been the centre executing his strengths the best so far, with Soares (1/5) and Loe (1/3) not damaging from outside and Pardon pulling in just three o-boards to date to fall short of his usual impact at that end.

DJ Vasiljevic v Rayan Rupert & Izayah Le’afa – Vasiljevic had plenty of impact in Game 2, dropping 16 points on 4/6 from the land of plenty and taking on some extra ball-handling responsibilities with aplomb. After a slow start to the season series against the Breakers, DJ has now averaged 13ppg at 50 per cent from range in the past three meetings, and coach Mody Maor must make a decision about whether to give the relentless Le’afa this job from tip-off, which would allow Rupert to go head-to-head with the athletic Glover off the pine.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">DJ hitting a triple from the South Island ?<br><br>Catch it live and free on ESPN via Kayo Sports Freebies, 10Play, and 10Peach<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/WeTheKings?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#WeTheKings</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NBLFinals?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#NBLFinals</a> <a href="https://t.co/a65kAj4Dz6">pic.twitter.com/a65kAj4Dz6</a></p>&mdash; Sydney Kings (@SydneyKings) <a href="https://twitter.com/SydneyKings/status/1632272970256113664?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 5, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Who’s saying what?

Was there a more symbolic moment in Game 2 than Justin Simon ripping the ball from Will McDowell-White at mid-court and then jamming it down emphatically at the other end?

The winner of the Kings’ best defensive player award had deflected a WMW pass on the previous possession and thrown down two points to get the momentum back in Sydney’s favour, but this follow-up effort had more meaning.

McDowell-White had absorbed Simon’s pressure this time around, and had ambled to near half-court in his laconic style to collect a rare second touch, looking to utilise a Dererk Pardon screen.

But as he realised Simon had relieved him of possession again, the Game 1 superstar’s head dropped and he didn’t even bother to chase.

That was the tale of the game, Simon leading his side to victory against the odds with an epic third quarter, while McDowell-White shrunk from the spotlight with the pressure on him ramped up.

“Justin Simon, his will is indominable,” was the classic commentary from Casey Frank during those remarkable six minutes where Simon had eight points on 3/4 shooting, four steals and two boards.

The Kings’ import changed the game with his defence, a performance that had its genesis from a discussion with coach Chase Buford.

“I really challenged him, told him if we’re comparing Game 1 (and) his defence with Game 3 against DJ Hogg, it's night and day, and he came out tonight and gave us another one of those performances,” Buford revealed post-game.

“When he just ripped McDowell-White three times in a row or whatever it was in that third quarter, it totally changed the flow and momentum of the entire game and we never really looked back after that.”

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">BACK-TO-BACK ?<br><br>Catch it live and free on ESPN via Kayo Sports Freebies, 10Play, and 10Peach<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/WeTheKings?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#WeTheKings</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NBLFinals?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#NBLFinals</a> <a href="https://t.co/tZzsT1G8Ib">pic.twitter.com/tZzsT1G8Ib</a></p>&mdash; Sydney Kings (@SydneyKings) <a href="https://twitter.com/SydneyKings/status/1632265228493676551?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 5, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

In reality, the change was noticeable across the board as Sydney’s guards realized the best way to limit ball-screen damage is to force it away from dangerous spots or prevent it happening at all.

Derrick Walton set the tone on the first possession when he pushed McDowell-White with two hands on the return catch, forcing him back almost two metres.

Where WMW had been landing five-foot floaters in the series opening, he launched it from near the foul line on this possession due to Walton’s physicality and his attempt rimmed out.

Where in Game 1, Simon and Co would set up with footwork to ice the screen but allow it to be used – resulting in them being screened over and over again – on Sunday if they were denying use of the pick it stayed denied.

If they weren’t icing, their technical execution of the footwork to chase over the screen without getting hit was textbook. Two days earlier they were getting caught up and leaving their bigs to defend one-versus-two with McDowell-White and Barry Brown coming downhill.

That combination of attention to technical detail and high-level intensity kept New Zealand to 41 points at 33 per cent across the opening three terms.

“We weren’t particularly pleased with how Game 1 turned out for us, obviously, it was such a quick turnaround which was probably fortunate in a lot of ways,” Jordan Hunter said.

“It gives us a chance to bounce back and we went to the film, we challenged ourselves and we were able to deliver.

“Fortunately we felt that the solutions were quite simple and it’s easier said than done than to go out and do the scout harder and compete harder, but we were excited to come and do that and I think that showed on the floor.”

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Kouat Noi, with the steal and finish ?<br><br>Catch it live and free on ESPN via Kayo Sports Freebies, 10Play, and 10Peach<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/WeTheKings?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#WeTheKings</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NBLFinals?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#NBLFinals</a> <a href="https://t.co/POP4PQUQ0X">pic.twitter.com/POP4PQUQ0X</a></p>&mdash; Sydney Kings (@SydneyKings) <a href="https://twitter.com/SydneyKings/status/1632250411754110977?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 5, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

The question is how, after playing less than 48 hours earlier and having their two leading stars watching on from the second quarter, could the Kings maintain that intensity?

“Everybody talks about our bench and our rotations, we’re fortunate enough to have rad guys like Shaun Bruce we can throw out there for 25-30 minutes and get the job done,” Buford said.

“We had no point guards out there at times and guys just stepped up and made plays.”

There was another key element to it, however, as the Kings benchmen sucked down the pickle juice, and that was the 34 trips to the free-throw line which got them regular breathers and allowed their defence to set up.

If New Zealand want to regain their series lead, they know defending the likes of Kouat Noi on penetration has to improve significantly.

“He shot 13 free throws. He was barreling his way to the rim, we were giving him straight-line drives and bailing him out with fouls late instead of making good verticality plays,” coach Mody Maor said.

“They played with a small dynamic driver and it’s something we should defend better.”

They also must execute better offensively to give their defence a chance, instead of rushing into the shots the Kings want them to take.

“We played with a lack of composure for big parts of the game, something we need to learn from. Championship series, big games come with challenges, you need some composure to overcome them,” Maor said.

“The traps with them are always the same, it’s the shots they allow you to take.

“We work to create other ones and when the good looks that you want don’t fall sometimes you force other things and that’s what we wanted to avoid.”

Game 3 comes down to who can control the start and who can control the tempo so they get the shots they want.

Across these teams’ five meetings, the winning side is +47 in the opening term, for an average quarter-time lead of 9.4 points against an average winning margin of just 6.2 points. In four of those clashes the trailing team has never regained the lead.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">20 points per game in the Championship Series so far for Barry ? <br><br>What can he bring through the next 2 games!? <br><br>Game 4 tickets: Link in bio <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/UNBREAKABLE?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#UNBREAKABLE</a> <a href="https://t.co/8qEnKbX2kS">pic.twitter.com/8qEnKbX2kS</a></p>&mdash; Sky Sport New Zealand Breakers (@NZBreakers) <a href="https://twitter.com/NZBreakers/status/1633637890596143105?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 9, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Can McDowell-White get back to his composed and brilliant best, and can Maor and his teammates execute pressure-releases to get Simon out of his shorts? Can Barry Brown turn his flashes of brilliance into something better than a 37 per cent shooting clip?

Can the Kings’ perimeter crew continue to ice and slide over screens to force WNW and Brown into tough pull-ups and runners that Cooks,  Walton, Noi and Simon can use to spark their transition game?

The Breakers feel like if they can stop that, they can stop Sydney.

“Defensively we were pretty good to start with, in the half-court they got nothing,” Breakers skipper Tom Abercrombie said.

“We gave up some easy leak-outs and turnovers which turned into points, but we know if we can get them in the half-court we can be pretty effective at the defensive end.”

Sydney understands that they need the same level of energy from Game 2 to bring Qudos Bank Arena to fever pitch and overcome their methodical trans-Tasman foe.

“We hope to have a great crowd, it sounds like it’s tracking that way. Our fans have been terrific for us all year long and we’re excited to go and play in that atmosphere,” Buford said.

“It was a character win, we probably had no business winning this game with the outs we had and the guys who stepped up just stepped up in droves.

“We’ll have to bring that same intensity on Friday and nothing less.”