Preview: New Zealand v Sydney (Game 2)

When: 4pm (AEDT), Sunday 5 March, 2023
Where: Spark Arena, Auckland
Broadcast: 10 Peach; 10 Play; ESPN; Kayo; Foxtel; Sky NZ; Prime NZ
LIVE STATS AND BOX SCORE

Who won the last time?

New Zealand 95 (Brown 19, McDowell-White 19, Brantley 16) d Sydney 87 (Simon 18, Hunter 15, Walton 12) – Game 1, Qudos Bank Arena, Sydney

NBL fans got a case of déjà vu in Game 1 as the Breakers repeated their Round 16 dose with a dominant first half, then weathered a number of Sydney storms before sealing the deal late. Like the previous meeting Will McDowell-White dominated from the high ball-screen, while Jarrell Brantley’s tag-and-don’t-release method again kept Xavier Cooks to 10 shots.

The difference this time was Barry Brown was in uniform, and just as it looked like the Kings would ride the 13,145-strong crowd home, the dynamic import put aside a horror outside shooting night and produced three straight tough drives to open the fourth term to stunt the momentum, and 13 match-winning points in the final stanza to give his team a 1-0 lead.

What’s working?

High catches – New Zealand’s offensive method is simple, decoy motion into a catch at the top of the arc for McDowell-White or Brown, who execute off high on-balls or double drag screens to perfection. That pair combined for 38 points on 11/19 (58%) from two-point range, and on the 28 possessions where they received secondary high catches, NZ scored 43 points at 68 per cent. From their other 50 possessions they had 52 points at 35 per cent.

Stopping early attacks – Justin Simon and Derrick Walton Jr were tough covers on penetration, combining for 30 points on 11/15 in the paint. However, only 13 of those points came in the first half of the shot clock as the Breakers shut down Sydney’s running game. The hosts managed just 26 points at 41 per cent off live-ball turnovers and defensive boards, with New Zealand not committing a single live-ball turnover in the final 35 minutes.

What needs stopping?

Getting outhustled – Sydney couldn’t harass NZ into mistakes nor generate speed off the glass in Game 1, grabbing just 66 per cent of available defensive rebounds, well down on their second-ranked 75 per cent across NBL23 and 77 per cent in the season series against New Zealand. In the final 5:45 of the game, the Breakers grabbed three of the eight available boards at their offensive end to own the tempo and hold Sydney to seven points.

The Kings were smacked 18-8 on second chance points, with Brantley having four o-boards to Cooks’ three defensive rebounds in a battle symbolic of the overall outcome. Sydney are a near-unbeatable 13-3 when their MVP has six or more defensive boards, compared to a mediocre 7-7 when he has five or less. If they’re playing the “All Blacks” at the other end, Cooks needs to hunt misses and then create scores for himself and others in the open floor.

Leaving X out of on-balls – It’s no surprise the Breakers simply refused to use Cooks’ man as a stand-alone screener given his switching prowess. Brantley would either stretch to the perimeter or be the first screener in double drags action from where he would pop to the arc. However, at no stage did Sydney quick-switch Cooks onto Dererk Pardon, nor double-switch drags action to allow Cooks to meet McDowell-White on the other side of the pick.

At the other end, Sydney only used the MVP as the ball-screener 14 times, and hit him as the roller just twice as Brantley hugged him to a standstill. With the other side of those picks unguarded, the Kings connected at 50 per cent from those possessions, compared to 43 per cent from all other action. The defending champs need Cooks sprinting into screens and slipping early to draw attention to Brantley’s holding and make the Breakers adjust.

Who’s missing key men?

Xavier Cooks and Derrick Walton finished Game 1 on the sidelines for Sydney, as did Dererk Pardon for the Breakers. Both teams are yet to confirm their final line-ups for today’s game.

Who’s matching up?

Dererk Pardon & Rob Loe v Tim Soares & Jordan Hunter – New Zealand’s twin towers added 16 points and five rebounds in Game 1, while their Kings’ counterparts had 20 and eight. Soares and Hunter were both 1/3 from deep, and will Sydney run more high pick-and-pops to get Soares looks from his favoured spot? And will Pardon’s roll game come to the fore with the Kings more concerned with McDowell-White and the shooters around the arc?

Rayan Rupert & Izayah Le’afa v DJ Vasiljevic – DJ looked dangerous early as he exploited Rupert’s overplay to score at the rim and create for others. However, while Le’afa did a better job of making him work for touches, the Kings simply went away from their shooting guard in the final term, Vasiljevic without a single shot in the final 10 minutes. Whether Cooks and Walton are fit, impaired or missing, the ball needs to be in DJ’s hands more often.

New Zealand v Derrick Walton – When he wanted to, Walton got into the lane at will on Friday, scoring 12 points at 57 per cent inside and dishing six dimes, the question is will his enormous quad cramp allow him to be close to 100 per cent for Game 2, and will he be assertive more often with the Breakers up in the passing lanes? The question for the Breakers is how to crowd his driving lanes without opening up Sydney’s ball movement.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Derrick Walton Jr getting it done for his team! <br><br>? Live on ESPN via Kayo Freebies | 10 Peach and 10 play<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/WeTheKings?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#WeTheKings</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NBLFinals?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#NBLFinals</a> <a href="https://t.co/4h21MLjO3Y">pic.twitter.com/4h21MLjO3Y</a></p>&mdash; Sydney Kings (@SydneyKings) <a href="https://twitter.com/SydneyKings/status/1631585247081971714?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 3, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Who’s saying what?

One of the great torments Australian basketball fans suffered over many years was watching high-level European point guards pick the Boomers apart via high ball-screens with five-out offences.

It’s something Barry Barnes, Brian Goorjian and Brett Brown couldn’t find the answer for, and it wasn’t until the second half of Andrej Lemanis’ reign and into Goorjian’s second watch – with the ultra-versatile frontcourt of Nick Kay, Jock Landale and Matisse Thybulle – that the Boomers started regular beating quality Euro sides.

It’s not something Chase Buford had to painfully sit through, but many Sydney-based Boomers fans would have, and that nightmare re-emerged in the Kings’ past two meetings with New Zealand as Will McDowell-White produced his best Milos Teodosic-Vassilis Spanoulis impersonation.

In those two contests, McDowell-White has burned for 39 points, 19 assists and just two turnovers, shooting 11/14 from inside the arc.

Watching the Will Show on repeat in Friday’s Game 1 would have driven Kings fans mad, and indeed Sydney’s repeat defensive performance on the composed point guard fits Einstein’s definition of madness.

Sydney seemed stuck between icing the ball-screen and chasing over the top, resulting in their guards constantly being screened and leaving their bigs defending one-versus-two on penetration, either giving up scores inside or open looks outside if the help D collapsed.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Controlling the game ? <a href="https://t.co/5LywmzxxW8">https://t.co/5LywmzxxW8</a> <a href="https://t.co/aTQaYh4ZdP">pic.twitter.com/aTQaYh4ZdP</a></p>&mdash; Sky Sport New Zealand Breakers (@NZBreakers) <a href="https://twitter.com/NZBreakers/status/1631797663086813184?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 3, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Thankfully, there is a template for Buford and Co to follow. After McDowell-White dominated Game 1 against Tasmania, the JackJumpers took the ball out of his hands and did their darndest to keep it out.

After the Breakers shot 53 per cent from the field, took 25 free throws and dished 16 assists in that series opener, Tassie kept them to 43 per cent, 18.5 foul shots and 9.5 dimes in the final two games, daring them to win with individual talent rather than WMW-fuelled system.

Can the Kings make a similar adjustment? Buford’s post-game comments suggest he is happy to keep dealing with the symptoms once McDowell-White comes off the ball-screen, rather than fixing the sore by forcing the Breakers’ elsewhere.

“We were throwing different coverages at him, we went back to it at different times, I think he made a couple of shots but we’ll live with some of those,” Buford said.

“We've got to compete on the ball a little bit better, we’ve got to have better shifts and our bigs have to be better too."

While WMW was quieter in the second half as Sydney’s bigs met him higher, the biggest factor was he deferred to Barry Brown, who took advantage of the same chinks in the Kings’ armour.

For Will, he’ll just keep taking what the defence gives him.

“The drops (defence) gives you probably a little too many options, but tonight I tried not to overthink it, the second half obviously they were a bit higher and trying to clog up the lane a little bit,” he said.

“I’d probably say the same mindset (for Game 2), read the covers on the ball-screen and when Barry’s hot just get him the ball.”

For New Zealand coach Mody Maor, it’s about McDowell-White and Brown colouring “between the lines” and seeing if Sydney can force them to get messy.

“For everything we do there’s a level of structure, there’s not a lot of randomness in how we play,” he said.

“For every (defensive) cover we have a response, for every situation there’s a way to play, but these are the outlines. Think like a kids colouring book – inside the lines be creative yourself, be the best version of yourself.

“Barry’s a very good player, I like it when he draws between the lines.”

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">PUT IT ON ICE <a href="https://t.co/q0kzWeGiEu">pic.twitter.com/q0kzWeGiEu</a></p>&mdash; Sky Sport New Zealand Breakers (@NZBreakers) <a href="https://twitter.com/NZBreakers/status/1631603941170647040?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 3, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

In the teams’ four meetings, New Zealand have scored 77, 81, 93 and 95, with a century potentially in the offing if the Kings don’t lift their defensive game.

In the two recent wins, they’ve shot 58 per cent inside, nailed 11 triples per game at 36 per cent and gone 40/50 from the foul line, toying with Sydney’s reactive defence by capitalising on their paint-packing ways and then attacking the holes that open up.

“We’re a good three-point shooting team, if you want to put five players or four players in the paint we’re going to find out shooters and shoot it with confidence,” Maor said.

“If it goes in it goes in, if it doesn’t it doesn’t, but we’re going to keep taking our shots.”

Yet while Sydney’s scores have been pretty steady at 81, 88, 88 and 87 and the Breakers’ improved offensive efficiency has been the determining factor in the two losses, Buford was most concerned with his team’s offence post-game on Friday.

With FIBA’s directions around off-ball offensive players being “entitled to move freely on the court” not being enforced, Buford knows the Kings have to fight their way through the physicality.

“Our offence was terrible, there wasn’t much freedom of movement tonight but we just allowed them to push us so far out on every screen,” coach Buford said.

“They're holding, but we just stood there and it’s hard to get any movement going when you don’t sprint into things and you’re getting held and you don’t handle that the right way.”

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Jordi doing the most ??<br><br>It&#39;s the celebration for us!<br><br>? Live on ESPN via Kayo Freebies | 10 Peach and 10 play<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/WeTheKings?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#WeTheKings</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NBLFinals?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#NBLFinals</a> <a href="https://t.co/z9Oi0SioXY">pic.twitter.com/z9Oi0SioXY</a></p>&mdash; Sydney Kings (@SydneyKings) <a href="https://twitter.com/SydneyKings/status/1631601339175170048?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 3, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

That inability to sprint in and out of screens was crucial. Only six times for the entire game did the Kings pass to the roller, and from that they got nine points at 67 per cent shooting, with seven of those from Jordan Hunter.

“I thought Jordi was great, his rolling, we were able to hit him in the pocket which against their defence you need to do and we weren’t able to often throughout the night,” Buford said.

“When we those runs that was a huge part, being able to get it to Jordi behind their coverages for a couple of easy buckets.”

While Sydney must search for answers to their ball-screen quandaries at both ends, for the Breakers it’s about maintaining the high-level execution of their fundamentals.

“Controlling the pace is very important when you play against Sydney, it’s very hard to do, we felt we were solid there, I still think we can be a lot better,” Maor said.

“They’re the best team in the league, they're going to go on runs and we expect them to go on runs. We’re prepared for them to go on runs and we need to respond.

“For us it’s always about going back to who we are, establishing who we are, doing things the right way, allowing us to control the tempo.”

For McDowell-White, it’s about being ready for the storm.

“Just know that they’re coming,” he said.

“They’re the reigning champs and they didn’t get here off luck or for no reason, so we know they're coming hard and they're going to try and steal one just like we did today.”